The Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur – Trump’s Recalibration to a Unipolar Word? ft Jason Leong

Welcome back to the Gutshot podcast with me Changang and Sam. Today we welcome uh geopolitical and political analyst Jason Leong. Hi. Um we've got something very interesting because I I believe it is the first time a sitting US president is visiting Malaysia and he arrives on our shores on Sunday which is I think 2 days from now. um reading between the tea leaves it seems interesting because uh until now uh Southeast Asia has been kind of like relegated in some sense to you know the the back of their mind where the US government is concerned reading within the tea leaves uh Jason gentlemen Sam

what are we to make of Donald Trump's decision to come to this part of the world Jason sure please I think this is definitely a good news for at least for AEN because if you have I would have noticed that when the very beginning of the Trump presidency 2.0 um he did not even mention us yet. I mean who are the people who we called actually in Southeast Asia? He called the the Vietnam BM he called Philippines and he called Bravo Indonesia. There's also three people as far as this concerned these are the three main leaders of Southeast Asia and then they spoke and

about many things and uh PMX did not get a call neither did Malaysia managed to get a call through as well and uh of course it has taken some time but better late than never at least now officially Trump recognizes the role of ASEAN so he's attending the ASEAN summit officially in his offic official capacity and uh if you remember the days before him way back uh Obama thought that was very convenient to leave out uh Southeast Asia or Asia and then suddenly he changed his mind. He said or pivot uh he was trying to do the pivot into Asia and it was like there was really no coherent policy in

terms of Southeast Asia uh as far as America is concerned. Yeah, they have a Asia policy but Southeast Asia was kind of like abandoned. uh is too small to matter despite the fact that uh a lot of people talk about Assean being well we are supposed to be a big uh influencer in terms of we have 600 million people in Assean and Assean supposed to be we we talk about Asan centrality and many other things but in the other part of the world where the geopolitics and the big guys are concerned Asan seem to be actually fairly inconsequential Can I uh add to that point then actually

I I I like your word uh you end up with the word inconsequential. Um I think uh we living in our bubble here in Assean does not seem to realize that we are actually inconsequential. Okay. Uh that's my personal opinion. Um the truth is we have to make ourself consequential. The only way you can make yourself consequential is actually to have uh the economic power, the true economic power that we do not have. Okay? And that needs to happen first. Um I think more than anything um that this trip to AEAN is not really to uh redirect or not to say redirect the focus. It's basically if I read the tea

leaves right to me um it's whether how are they going to take advantage of the situation in South Korea and uh visav uh China. So the ASEAN summit is a platform they're going to do that and the AP pack in South Korea. Okay. So the question then actually is more to us what do we do to make ourself relevant because remember um where was the first trip uh that Trump made it's to the Gulf countries.

Yes. Right. So he knows his priority. The problem is if you ask me what you put there is right which is we are inconsequential and we don't know how to make ourself a consequence. What about the two other possibilities? The fact that Malaysia uh location in Southeast Asia I think contains at least two waterways which are critical to to trade between Asia and Europe in the in the form of the South China Sea where obviously part of that falls into the nine dash line and uh that of course is a territory that is disputed and and claimed by China but um and has been

making inroads of course by by way of occupying islands. That's the first one. The second one being the streets of Malaka, right? But until the craft ismas is uh is is is manufactured in in some sense. The streets of Malaka are critical and of course both waterways belong to Malaysia.

So we are lucky by way of of pure luck and and geography that we are critical to global trade. I think that's the first one. The second one is possibly the fact that we are part of the semiconductor value chain and uh if if chips are the future of America by way of AI, we do play a critical role because we supply to the big players. What do you make of that?

Yeah, certainly. I mean, this this is certainly very relevant because uh as you know with all the trade deals and the trade war going around uh everything can be weaponized. Exactly. So whether it is waterways, whether it is uh a new path through I mean even Thailand was trying to do the

the cross bridge thingy but I don't think they have the money and it doesn't make sense to to to do that as well. So the stress of lacquer and um I think many people probably have not uh thought about the fact that Malaysia, US uh cooperation in terms of intelligence. Uh it's actually quite extensive because we share a lot of intelligence with with the the US uh from even from the days of old and even up to now. And in terms of if you look at the military diplomacy that happens uh not only in Singapore each time you will see some of those aircraft carriers coming in to to visit

Singapore uh but there was one also that was recently uh quite near our cruise terminal in clang and there are many others plus the negotiations for all kinds of military equipment and acquisition of aircraft whether it's a multi-roll aircraft uh that we are looking at and all all sort of things. So this Malaysian companies I mean American companies in Malaysia and in ASEAN they are actually quite substantial companies around and even in Malaysia especially we are probably one of those with pretty high concentration of American companies are here. I mean look at Intel, right? Intel

has been in uh northern Malaysia for what 50 years. I mean Pang where I'm from. Yeah. Obviously since that time when when Andy growth was an open when he landed there. And the thing is now the US government owns 10% in Intel um which they've taken by in replacement of the grants that they would have otherwise have given them. So that's interesting. So there

one smart Malaysian right? Yeah. Malaysian CEO say so he knows how to handle Trump right. So of course you you look at many other things as well. They are all the data centers that are supposed to be set up in the process of being set up in Malaysia. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google,

the hyperscalers. What about the third possibility that he could be here? Um, the fact that he's actually not here to talk about Malaysia, but he's actually here as a venue to meet Zinping on the sidelines as more that's that's that's more my feeling.

Yeah. Yeah. Uh but the question is then you Malaysia being neutral territory and and so on. Yeah. I mean the this is where I get the the the the uh the thought that actually again it's a question of how do you make yourself off consequence right when you talk about uh when Jason mentioned about uh pane the waterways and you mentioned about the waterways you must remember

um the waterways that the that that that all the merchant marine uh ply on are international waterways it's really irrelevant um whether they go whether they dog in Indonesia or they dog in Port Lang or they they they also have presence in Singapore. Okay. So um the the geop the way the geopolitics is set up I mean and and again they also have a base in the Philippines right and you got what is that? Uh they got the the seventh fleet is uh the seventh fleet is uh what is stationed in Yokosuka

Japan. In Japan. Yeah. Right. So basically from a geopolitical standpoint in terms of uh their navy presence you know their seven fleet which is the most important uh element uh of their uh projection of military might plus protection of uh uh shipping lanes they are already there irrespective right the question I always ask and I go back to that point that you made Jason is basically then how do you add value to it because if you ask me, I remember I'm an oil band, right? And I think at one point and I think even at this point, Exxon has practically uh pulled themselves out of Malaysia

effectively. Yes. Right. So that tells you a lot and even Intel while you say that, right? um the manufacturing can move you know in a split second because what we are providing in terms of even semiconductor is not as that value added as we may think you know so this is always the problem of developing nations yeah and um and it is incumbent upon us actually to uh to actually take advantage of the situation that comes down to Malaysian uh government policies and how we are visav the Americans and I think that's the part that I think if I were the Americans and if I was Trump um you know

you look at how promo um actually reach out to Trump to congratulate he didn't call promo you know yes pro called him the moment he won payction

pro called him yeah he wasn't president yet yes so and um uh and and that's that's the whole dynamic ICS right um we have a hubris uh as if we want to be um uh the champion of what not okay in the Middle East but look at the Middle East nations if you look at that peace in the Middle East uh image okay Trump was standing right in front with the American presidency emblem on the podium in Egypt and behind him was the Western European an leaders and the Arab leaders and one Indonesian president.

Yeah. Okay. So, the geopolitics if you were to ask me today, I don't know. I want to hear your opinion, Jason. I think we have reverted from a multipolar world to a uniolar one. And I'm willing to make an argument for that. And that uniolar world is led by America. and the foundation is being led by Trump.

Okay. Uh two things I just want to address please. Uh for this Asan summit Cinping is not coming. Neither is Putin, neither is Modi. So the only big man and the big show in town is Trump.

And can can I ask you then if that's the question if if that is you you know for sure Cin Ping is not coming. Yeah. I I know for sure Putin is not coming. He's already announced. But why do you think Sigin Ping is not coming?

Uh there are a lot of things that's happening in China currently. The fourth plenum is still on today. Uh uh there are all kinds of rumors. I thought it's ending this uh today. I think today is probably the end. Yeah. Uh so as you can you would have seen the prelude to that fourth platinum

right? The recent announcement of nine generals that was reached out. Uh so it is like and this this came from the ministry of defense.

Yeah. And uh okay I mean I divert a little bit. No no matter no matter how you you dice it and try to spin it if you have nine generals all appointed by Cinping being removed allegedly for corruption it means only two things. Mhm.

One, you are a terrible judge of character. You have nine of your closest appointees, top military generals, and they have now been all removed for corruption. That means what kind of leader you can't be something is wrong.

Yeah. Secondly, the other way to spin it is okay, you're probably one of amongst them. Uh you're also part of the gang. Maybe uh the white thing is also on the wall for you. So nine of them your people removed. So there must be consequence uh in the scheme of things when you have nine generals removed and then the top guy I mean Cinping is still chairman of the CMC. Yes. The so he's the chief of army technically he's still the commander in chief. So

what what is the CMC? The the Chinese um China military military commission right? Yes. Uh so uh amongst those that was removed I mean his chairman and then comes down there is the deputy vice chairman and two two vice chairman one of the vice chairman uh uh heong has been removed so basically one right arm gone leaving only one other other guy so and then the whole series of many guys and the rocket force that was set up by sinping basically since 2015 and modernized since 2022 two there are only five rocket force commanders and all five have been removed.

So let's let's uh let's take this a step further. What does it mean then? So it means that there is a lot of things that are behind the scene happening in China. We are hearing a lot of rumors but we are unable to confirm anything but like I say there cannot be without a consequence. There must be something.

What is the strongest rumor? So there are various possibilities. One scenario is that nobody wants to really rock the boat so much as to say Cinping immediately step down from power. No, he holds three three of the most powerful position today in China. One, the president uh presidency. Two, the secretary general of the party. Three, the chairman of the military commission.

Yeah. So of the three, two are basically kind of political. the military commission is the one that holds the military power. So one possibility is that the vice chairman currently the general changes just step up and become the chairman of the military commission basically forcing Cinping to relinquish his military power and he will step back and just take the president. um it could just be a figurehead plus the sanen position of the CCP or he may even lose the sanen position somebody else may come in so if that's the case then we are seeing the beginning of the

end of ciinping you know nobody want to rock the boat and do a certain takeover so there will be a phase transition so I think the fourth plenum today ending will mark the beginning of something uh and then there is the 21st party congress that's coming up in about 2 years time.

That's 2027, right? 2027. So maybe a nice time to ease him out transfer transition or something like that. So there's no disruptive kind of uh takeover in China. So China they do things like this. They don't want to lose face. They don't want to do this abrupt thingy. So everybody gets to keep the face and there's a graceful exit. So I think if that's true then Xiinping has a lot of things on his plate. I don't think he can afford to leave the country.

He may not go he may not come back. Yeah. I mean I'm not joking about that. Exactly. I mean that's what happened to Takshin, right? He went to the UN and then the next day it was that you know there was a coup and then he came home

and he went to an exile. So things like this. I've been saying about this for the last I would think 3 months if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. Even when we had our discussion with uh Fuy,

remember? Yeah. And I I was uh I was already um interminate in intimating that uh something is brewing in China because um number one from an economic standpoint they are o they have overbuilt over capacity over production and yet their wages are suppressed. Okay. you can't uh so they cannot uh they cannot consume their way out of what is currently possibly is a recession, right? So I mean um I can you imagine this their GDP per capita is only slightly above us.

Yes. And yet every um every major city is is gleaming with infrastructure and uh you know railway system and whatnot. And I I call that is the basic flaw of um of of the uh GDP KPI driven uh uh uh what do you call promotion planning of uh of the CCP one state system.

Exactly. Yeah. So, um I think this is just adding to his grab of power in the in the CCP which I mean he he abolished the term limit.

Yes. Right. And I don't think that sat well with the definitely not. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The party elders everybody also wants a chance. I mean here you are you know when's my turn you and you decided to remove the term limit. You're going to be president for life.

Yeah. Who was the who was the last president? Was it was it the sec the last president or the secretary general that that that after his retirement he was uh uh uh he he died and and people were speculating that it was actually he was actually murdered.

The former PM the former PM right what's his name? Likang. Yes. Yes. So that is a big there was quite a bit of speculation because he died at a very strange young age of 69.

Crazy, right? So in China, if you understand the way that they take care of their leaders, especially when you are in the top 20, right? You have a private medical team and a private hospital designed for you for emergencies. They will take care of you.

Hey, Mahade is still alive at 100. Okay. Yeah. So, so China no they don't spare any expense right so even if you I mean can you imagine you a former PM

uh you cannot be like just like that and look at all of them they all hail and hearty at 80 82 85 you know why do you remember do you remember the was it was it the the the CCP uh last um uh uh uh Congress when they remove uh Hua from the meeting.

Yes. Hua is still one of those among the and he's the elders. He's the most respected party elder. Yes. Yes. I mean other than Cinping, he is now one of those.

Can you imagine him getting escorted out? Yes. Uh so he has his own faction. Yes. uh which are fairly they are we what we call them the the technocratic faction.

Yeah. Uh so back to Leang actually there was one fact that was pointed out by one of my friends in China. He said when he had a heart attack allegedly heart attack they took him to a small provincial hospital instead of the designated hospital for the PM. So why and then this hospital were not that far apart. uh they were about 27 kilometers apart. So it's like you could have taken him to the destinator. Why break break the protocol and send him to a place where there has got no facilities to treat the heart heart attack that kind of thing. So there's a lot of rumors going around in China.

I think Jang Yua is going to take over if you ask me. your your Sam your point about the GDP is absolutely on point because many people do not realize that China's GDP per capita is actually lower than Mexico's GDP per capita.

Yes. Uh so that is not a superpower. So you want to look at that you know I mean Mexico can say hey we we we are better off than you guys. Yeah. Uh but China your your in your you have gleaming cities you have uh you know you can you can boast about your railway but I I saw it from an economic standpoint as becoming uh yeah I can build as many as ever grand and I have nobody actually to transport or to fill up the place.

Yeah, you know. So I think that economic uh uh catalyst is one that power grab uh of uh taking over three position of power and abolishing term limit. I think I think probably the factions have had enough and uh the question I have then going back to our topic is actually why would Trump come? Well, Trump, America has what you call a published uh strategy paper called the Indo-Pacific uh strategy, whether you call it uh a net security u or warfare paper, whatever. But it is a very broad Indo-Pacific strategy,

America's viewpoint. But how can you have Indoacific strategy without Southeast Asia? Southeast Asia is definitely a very critical part of Indopacific. So I think Trump has now begin to see that there this is one uh important part and South China Sea is definitely a key issue. So his presence here would also signify that America is now paying attention to not just Southeast Asia but also to South China Sea. And uh by the way, South China Sea, you look at the way that the COC or the code of conduct is being negotiated and trying to get it completed. We first we

have the declaration of conduct uh the South China Sea declaration of conduct that took 15 years just to talk about declaration and then 12 years ago we started on the code of conduct and it's still being negotiated today. uh I think it will take probably more than 15 years to even get it done.

So, so how can you even get that done and uh it's so complicated because China is trying to negotiate it separately bilaterally with every single Assean nation because China do not want AEAN to gang up as one big block and negotiate as a block. So China want to split. It's kind of like uh divide and rule. So I negotiate with Brunai, I negotiate with Vietnam, I negotiate all separately and it's very hard to put everything everyone's interest and converge together into one code of conduct. So this is going to take perpetually long long time and meanwhile there's no code

of conduct a lot of things can happen in in South China Sea and which we have seen uh almost every two months there will be some incursion u into our ease whether it's Malaysian currently there's one uh whether it's Thailand Indonesia or Philippines and everything else so so that part is is is key and from From what I understand, there was also an announcement that Trump wants to witness the signing of the peace treaty between Cambodia and Thailand.

Yeah. And he wants to cement his legacy as a peacemaker rather than a supporter. He wants there. He wants to be there. So, this is actually perhaps maybe even more important than the summit itself. You may be right there. Yeah. I I sort of missed out that one.

Grab the limelight of that one, right? Yeah. He's always a producer. Yeah. And he also made a statement that he doesn't want China to be in the room when that is being signed. So he wants every single camera to be all focused on him this this attention. This is me, man. I did this. I got these two parties together and now there's peace. I'm a peacemaker. I'm the peace president. So next year's Nobel Prize, Nobel Peace Prize is mine. So this is something that

you know you know I I I I don't give much credits to his need for uh the Nobel Prize to be honest with you. I think a lot of uh uh the region has come that way. But um my understanding of that character he's just trolling people. He loves to troll people, right? And uh for him, if you ask me, his main emphasis is uh to turn around America to be the preeeminent economic and superpower in the world, right? If you look at it, right? I mean, he himself also does not quite believe in uh multilateralism, right? He doesn't like the WTO. He pulled out of the WH. Um I don't think

he liked the UN either. Right. Yeah. And I think I think um and if I read his mind right, I honestly understand why and I would do the same if I were in the his position. Um because why? He's coming from an economic standpoint. It's not about divide and rule. If I'm going to do uh an economic uh deal, why would I want to have a bunch of comp companies uh uh collaborating with each other and having a mediator um negotiating with me? I would rather negotiate with each with each one and let them compete for my for my uh consumer base because I've got you I've got the the the the richest consumer

base in the world. Yes. Yeah. Isn't that right? Exactly. I mean Sam definitely right because Ghana the days where America wants to be the global referee no more. Yeah.

So Trump what's the point of being a referee right? So Trump is like, "No, I got skinned in the game. I'm now a global player. I'm part of the game and I play to win." Right? So why bother to even negotiate through some multilateral organizations? We can negotiate directly.

Yeah. So multilateralism as far as Trump is concerned is dead. Yeah. I would call it today if you want to give a name. This is transactionalism uh on turbocharge. Oh, steroids.

But he's on a timeline, right? Because I think their national debt just went past 38 trillion in I think just 3 weeks. I think they pay more every year for interest than on defense and social security and healthcare. It's crazy.

And it's this juggernaut that just can't stop. I mean, he's got to make it happen. He's got to get it done. I think the other part the other part when you talk about that I I agree I mean I think both of us has now come to a point where we both agree that multilateralism is dead right I have made the point as well and I've made a bat with Chuang

bricks is dead okay um I mean what are you going to rely on bricks you've got China hobble with its own economic problem all right you've got Russia who's supposed to actually win the war in 4 weeks and they are bogged down for 4 years um against a defensive weapon provided by America. That's a that's that's a nothing, right? And you've got like you said as well, not just the economic situation in China itself, but also the political situation that Giin Ping is facing, right? So the entrance of Trump 2.0 Oh, comes at the best time for America to actually take back the

reign of uh of being the uniolar global superpower and I think it's going to happen. Do you know what I read um uh just over the weekend? Um because uh my previous company uh we were one of the pioneers in uh offshore marine um in Malaysia and um you know the international maritime organization uh was trying to impose a zerocarbon um uh uh a zerocarbon framework, right? You know what has come out of it? done. Okay. It's over. All right. They have conveniently postponed it to next year because they don't want to lose face.

Yes. Right. But for all intents and purposes, that whole carbon uh uh renewables thing is dead in the water. Yes. Yeah. And the way Trump is going about in terms of lowering energy prices, it's all going to be about oil, gas, and nuclear.

Yeah. And practically even coal, clean coal. Yes, definitely. Yeah. Yeah. Because uh he has no qus about fossil fuel. Yeah. Dig dig dig. Yeah, dude. drill

the the the the the the oil price is now approaching 60 bucks per barrel. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. So, he doesn't care. Yeah. He doesn't care. It's okay. I mean, uh cheap oil is always good because it will fuel

growth and economic boom throughout. Yeah. Industrial activity. I think I think the PMI is still below 50 and they've got to get it up. Yeah. Yeah. So of course uh some of the the

which makes it worse companies may make it a bit difficult you know when when the margin cost is a bit too high. So but well I've always said this and I kept saying to people for the last four four years you know that anticipate an oil price of $50 and make your company as efficient as possible so that you can make a profit at $50 per barrel. If you can do that, you know, I don't care what what happens with the oil cycle.

Yeah. Yeah. Um, unfortunately, most does not want to uh heat that kind of advice. Yeah. You know, anyway, so we've got that situation. What I mean with respect to I mean even carbon capture or zero net carbon uh uh he's I think he's killing off the ESG initiatives. Definitely

the globalization initiatives the whole framework of globalization is being ripped apart. Yep. Yeah. So what do you see um where do you see we are going with that in terms of where do you see Trump is pushing um the uh the global agenda?

Well, you you mentioned the return uh to the unipolar world. Mhm. Um I I would not go as far as that. Okay, I would say that for me it looks like Trump is u my objective assessment of it is that America is at the center of everything but not always in control. So I I think I I will put that statement so in in because Trump wants to put America first and America at the front and center of everything. uh so whether it's geopolitics whether it's geoe economics I mean today geioeconomics has been in a way co-opted to become uh to boost geopolitical power basically so so

he's talking about security coupled with trade deals defense and resources so everything is all mixed up together to provide that kind of power to America I mean gone are the days where I mean we at one time amass besters. I used to teach that also to some of our investors. Fukuyama, you know, the decline of the hgeimon America decline. So we always pushing soft power. I mean for Trump is concerned, he doesn't care about soft power. So his power is that we will project power but it's not soft. This is going to be hard because we will talk about see every deal everything

alliances have become clients. Trade deals have become I mean treaties have become trade deals. Sometimes every handshake Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Treat that's a good one. Treaties has become trade deals. I like that.

Right. And every handshake comes with a price maybe a price tag. So I don't care. And there's no such thing as uh the sacred cows that we cannot cross. Uh certain things that we will never do, he will do. Whatever that suits him and whatever that suits America and puts America's uh interest first. May I say this then? Actually, I've said this all along. I think the mindset of Trump as a bluecollar businessman, I call him, as long as the bottom line works, he doesn't care.

Yeah. Well, I think I read somewhere that um whatever decision America makes, it is seemingly haphazard um um uh style is that it's got to satisfy three things. Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America richer? If it does any one of those three things, they'll do it. So, which then brings me to the point about Malaysia's trade uh tariffs, right? I think it's 19% but not yet official. So, does that get cobbled down this trip as well?

You know, 19%. What's at stake? I mean, could it be higher? Could it be? Is it 19 or is it 24? 19. 19. 19. It's gone down to 19. Yeah, 19 actually. But is it still 19? Fairly decent deal actually comparatively.

Because at the last I saw was it was about 24. It went up to 25 it go down to 24. This must be pretty back and forth. It's back and forth. Yeah. So, Mity, I think, is in uh, you know, is in deep discussions with their people.

It's it's it's Yeah, I agree with you. It's pretty decent if you get it at 19. Yeah. So, so so what's at stake? I mean, obviously Malaysia wants to pay less, America wants to get more. I don't think the this particular trip for Trump, he has the time for for for all that to negotiate trade deals.

Certainly certainly anyway. I don't think Besson is coming. Neither is a Jameson grill or but I heard that Besson is coming. I see. Okay. Well, so certainly I know I'd love to make an announcement on that front when they are here. I mean just reasons.

I mean you know what I mean if I think as the lowest we can even actually imagine is actually 15% if you ask me you know that is the lowest I can see it ever happening you know uh because of

what does Singapore pay? Singapore pays 10 right. Yeah, because Singapore has hardly any non-tariff barriers. We can't uh we have a lot of non tariff barriers. Yeah, our bumutra policies are uh uh

huge impediment is a yeah is a non-tariff barrier that we cannot or our government are not willing to untangle. So we have So I think if you can get 15% I take my head off, you know.

Exactly. And I think our companies can handle a 15% tariff. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. You know, or even 19% to be honest. 19. Yeah. I mean, among the compared competing nations, I think that's uh that's definitely it. You know, the other thing I I I I sort of like uh uh uh wanted to mention before I forget. So if if if this divert a bit, Jason, I I sort of laugh when uh when China um uh announced um uh uh controls over uh the rare earth minerals. Actually, I was thinking to myself, how much can you shoot yourself in the foot, you know? I mean, and I was looking at the uh at the m at the

mainstream media and the uh talking heads going as if there you go, Trump, you know, China is going to get and I'm like, dude, do you guys realize something? This hubris is going to bite your ass. You know, have they not remembered Opac, right? You do not go and screw your customers and especially your biggest customers around the world.

You know, they seem to have forgotten the lesson of OPEC. And not only that, I think they they're now backing down. Yes. Yes. Yeah. I think you ask me buddy. I think that that that particular move was probably done by someone in the either in the in the rankings trying to project a strength on behalf of Cin Ping.

Yeah. Don't you think so? Probably. I suspect so. It seems to be a card that was played too fast too soon without thinking deep thinking about the consequences. Yeah. And uh of course the talking heads like to say that here you are you know so this is going to set America back and we're going to really kind of uh blackmail America but there are so many moving parts

and one part which I I think nobody wants to see even the think tanks don't even talk about it is surprisingly the people whom I engaged with they say oh this is the cut that America has got no cut to say so Trump is going to taco as usual I say, "Hey, it might just be the other way around." So, it's going to be China is going to taco, you know, not not Trump,

which which they have, which they are going to, right? What is taco? What is taco? For the benefit of a foreign audience, Trump always what?

Uh, chicken out. Chicken out. Okay. Trump always check it out. That means he will do you. Actually, this one is going to be cho. Yeah, you go choco or whatever you know China is going to chicken it out.

Yeah. I mean on a very logical sense if you are trying to say that oh we are going to control the entire global supply chain and there are rules that you must follow when you export anything that contains a little bit of% 01 or whatever.

How in the world can China enforce it? If you are Australia, you are exporting the your your your equipment with a lot of rare earth to me. I'm in America. Hey, Australia. America business. China. You you want to block this? This is external territoriality. Uh which has got

nothing to do with you. Yeah. You can't reach it. It's an overreach. Which court in the world is going to enforce that and say we're going to enforce China's rules on that? You think you're like us? you can enforce the sanctions. Yeah, you can't.

So, so, so from the AANA standpoint, right, um, we've got this, they talking about the return of to a uniolar world. You've got the maybe the the receding of China as a power for for all the reasons that you mentioned, right? How does Azan look at China? How does Azan look at America? How do Malaysian businesses position themselves? I mean, we talk about offering an Asian perspective, right?

Um, it does seem as if we don't quite know. I mean, we're still followers. I mean that much is clear right we are just joining come ladies but how do we position how do we better position ourselves for this world I I I I I have a I have my thoughts on that yeah

but I would really love to hear Jason first uh okay I think I I I I did some uh um jotting down some notes on that u definitely one one thing that we we we can do for ASEAN or Malaysia for that matter. We really need to understand how to play the game. If we have gone too much over to the China side, we need to recalibrate

and uh Trump's trip to Malaysia, ASEAN, this is a perfect opportunity for us to recalibrate uh and begin to understand that like I say, America is still at the center of a lot of things. uh things do not really revolve around China is America. Yes, no doubt sometime they cannot control everything but you need to understand and if you want to insist that there is a multi-polar world people get mixed up with the definition of multipolar because a more definite and clearer picture accurate picture of multipolar I would say is that there will be multiple poles in the

world where countries will have their own sphere of influence in each of these multiple poll India wants to be a pole right so does uh uh Brazil wants to be a pole China wants to be a pole Japan wants to be a pole so that

but that's that's very regional yeah so you're looking at or multipolar is not a multipolar world where you have two different poles and they all equal strength and they're fighting no right the the strength is asymmetrical and the multiple pole that you are in charge of like India uh I have my little pole in the Indian Ocean and India but that's all I am there is a bigger pole out there you know that's America so how does all this interact so Malaysia and Assean despite all the claims about Assan centrality we are we are not in the center of things right we are just

somewhere in the orbit and we really need to understand our place in things like this so if at all there is any strategy and then advice for businessmen in Malaysia who may have business in China, they should adopt a China plus one strategy. So meaning you are in China but always have a backup manufacturing place maybe in Vietnam. So in case something happens to China, something implode, something just clam down, there is some kind of major trade war and the geopolitics make it so impossible for you to operate in China anymore, you have Vietnam. So it's a China plus one policy that's very

important. So ensure that your supply chain is varied enough and robust enough to withstand this kind of geopolitical upheavalss so that you don't get wrong because you know already supply chains are now being weaponized as part of the trade deal. Uh Trump will do it, China will do it, China is doing this supply chain thingy about this right of things, right? That is why ch uh US and Australia did this big deal about the critical framework on uh rare earth and what Trump said was in that statement was that this is to build a China free supply chain.

Yeah. So basically so basically they're decoupling. Yeah. Decoupling. So the decoupling will happen. It's not just d-risking nowadays. No, it's going to be a decoupling. Yeah. It's gone beyond that. Yeah. And because you've just made the point that you can't trust me.

Yes. And with with China's big announcement about rare earth and they want to do a song and dance about it, you ask for it. You asked for it. Yeah. No, you I mean I I as a chemical engineer I'm I mean I I'll tell everybody this, right? Rare earth are not rare.

Yeah. Exactly. Okay. They are not rare at all. Yeah. Okay. and and in my opinion including the production technology or the refining technology even if you were to build up China as a as a 90% monopoly has maybe uh a lead time of two to three years maximum I give them 2 years at best okay before America says America what they are doing today Y

that you know that monopoly is gone. Okay. So here here are some numbers I've got. Right. The US doesn't like a rare earth reserve. Actually the US has got is number number seven globally with 1.8 million tons but it buys over 70% of Israel from China about $170 billion worth. The secret science is in the purification process and the full supply chain which China has right the purity the purification thing. But recently, America has been buying rare earths like it's going out of fashion. All right. The US Department of Defense has moved to secure up to $1 billion in critical

minerals from cobalt and antimony to scandium and tentelum as part of a global race to reduce dependence on China as part of the coupling process. But not just that, I mean, you think about this, right? The only reason uh America under the democrat rule because their policies has been about environmentalism uh

climate change uh and whatn not the biggest thing is the current technology that is applied by China who doesn't care how the environment is going to be affected or how the the manpower is utilized and poisoned by the uh by the mining and the manufacturing of the rare earth materials. Okay, that is why they have monopolized.

But what they have done is actually made the whole world including Western Europe, America especially and Australia to say okay that's what you want to do. We're going to get into it. Right. And they will get into it and they will get into it very fast.

Exactly. I mean, who owns the technology in the first place? Original uh innovators of the technology, it's America. Yeah. I mean, the Americans, the Democrats, more specifically, abdicated their position and just say, "Oh, we don't want all this dirty toxic stuff in our backyard, you know, can let China have it." They abdicated that position and China took advantage of it and they just did all the refining. Who cares about climate change in China? So, they did all that. So they had that advantage.

Yeah. Hey buddy, remember remember how much of uh Lena's uh issue was it uh uh what what was that almost two decades ago in Malaysia right today what everybody is crying for lenas and multiple lenas.

What kind of idiotic are we talking about? You know I mean this is my problem with our policy makers. All right. They are so caught up aping the trend of the day, you know, of of the western narrative. They don't have the foresight to think beyond the conventional of what is being said. I am advocating via this podcast as for our policy makers and for our Malaysian audience because the American audience are smarter. Okay? All right. You know, they've already done it. They don't care. That's why they elected Donald Trump, right? Drop all this All right. Because why? You need economic power.

Okay. One. And that's what we need to do. And that's where when you asked me when when when Chuang asked that question I defer to Jason and I said I think he has opened up for what I want to say now which is uh you know um what do we do then you know with this AEAN summit with American coming in and he's used the right word which is to recalibrate your relationship.

I mean probo has recalibrated his relationship. Okay. The Philippines, we know for a fact they've always been pro America, right? Japan with this new prime minister.

Oh yeah. All right. South Korea has got to rethink where they are. Okay. But I would say Malaysia really need to look at what we are. We have a central position. What our problem has been is this bugaboo about the Middle East, right? You know, Probo says outright in the UN that we will recognize Israel. Yeah. Okay. And you know what? What Trump has provided in his 20point peace plan is as best as I have seen a plan that is backed by the Arab nations. Right? Come on, get on the bandwagon. you know, get on the bandwagon, clean up our act in terms of actually using the I

mean our resources to actually go into productive economic activity, right? And don't increase the cost of doing business, open up our market.

Do you know what I I do a lot of work with the local corporates, right? Sure. And they still talk about sustainability. Uhhuh. They still talk about ESG. Yeah. And I said to you guys, do you do you realize that that that horse has left the the barn? You know, why? But the thing is, I mean,

what did they tell you? Well, the thing is they're still focused on doing sustainability messaging and and and putting a lot of the activities behind all these all these uh these narratives. And I say to to them, the the rest of the world has moved on from this part. I mean, from this idea, right? Why are you still pursuing this? And the thing is, I think a lot of Malaysian corporates, especially among the GLC's, they're just following. They're not they're not thinking originally behind about why and how they should.

The problem is because uh our at the governmental level uh which follows down through Bank Nagara uh Securities Commission and even Burus. Okay. They still have not woke up that the horse has bolted the bun. Yeah.

You know, and not just bolted the bun. Um, basically the biggest consumer market in the world has burned the bun down. Exactly. You know, no, you're right. You're exactly right.

You know, and I think that the faster and all you're doing is increasing the cost of doing business, making your company less productive and less profitable. All right? and you know get out of that Greta Thunderberg mentality, okay? And be uh a serious business people, you know, and and and actually this is what we need to do and actually learn from what the Americans are doing, which is why they voted Trump in.

Yeah. you know, and not just that actually I'm extremely impressed with their with Trump's cabinet. They are running on multiple silos and actually integrating all the silos

at breakneck speed. You know, it's like they I mean they they're using e economy to leverage for peace. Who's who ever thought of that?

Yeah, because um money and money speaks very loud. Uh and if you look at the entire Trump cabinet, how many billionaires are there? Exactly. Right. So even Trump in his own right, he's a billionaire.

Yeah. So when it comes to business, uh he can tell you a lot of things about business and he's a successful businessman. Yeah. Right. So so he's in a way running the country along that lines. How to make it a success? But now making use of all the other levers of powers whether it's security, whether it's military and everything else. So even to make it even more successful, I mean it's quite strange like you say when it comes to rare earth Malaysia today we are talking about NR non-raactive rare earth elements. Uh there is we have substantial and that's al also a key point uh in

China's uh so-called uh playing the rare earth card because increasingly non-raactive rare earth will come to replace the rare earth. So that means there will be a time even now graffine is coming up as one of those possible replacement of rare earth and over the past 60 years rare earth refining technology has changed and now the refining technology is much better modern less toxic less polluting so a lot of things are happening it's not like we are still stuck with the old technology so America is evolving and they are right at the forefront of a lot of these new technologies And the many

things that are replaceable, many things that can be substituted. Even magnets can be recycled. So there's no such thing now. Oh, I I control the world magnet production. Therefore, everybody is beholden to me.

It's gone, right? Macex can be recycled. As I said, OPEC used to think that yes, OPEC. So that is where uh so this is something that the Malaysia must also think um this geopolitical power is always very dynamic and maybe one specific thing that Malaysia can do considering the fact that okay China and US let's begin to adopt and learn multiple standards for doing things.

Well I I I I think that American standards and maybe China standards. So we got Huawei here, you know, you learn to those things. They got the Huawei OS and all that. So okay, be familiar with that so that you can operate those stuff then you can still do all those stuff.

I I I I have this suggestion before I forget if you don't mind me interjecting, you know. I mean, I look at it as uh I mean, I know you push back a bit on on the uniolar uh term that I use, but I I'm going to stand by it that actually we are looking at it from a global standpoint. It is going to be a unipolar world led by America for the next at least strongly 20 years. Okay? Because I'm looking at the domestic American politics. I think I think you're looking at the air apparent JD Vans to take over for the next uh two cycles. All right. And we don't know. I mean I I'm sorry to my Democratic

friends but how are you going to win an election when you can't even defend you can't even define what is a woman? Okay. So the I mean so to me when I look at that and then when you say about you know this regional uh economic power what you do with regional economic power is basically they're just your your your partner in traders.

Yes. That's all. All right. So you trade with every country. I don't care whether it's China how big their economy is, South Korea, how big their economy is, you know, but the regime is going to the global regime is going to be dictated by Uncle Sam like it or not. Okay. So I think the faster we realize this reality, the better we are. Okay. So I have a suggestion actually in this sense. I want to get to this where you talk about uh uh what reccalibrating, right? The US have got their seventh fleet. They're going to expand their their naval power. Okay, dude. We are in the straits of Ma,

right? You've got shipyards that are not working. You've got in Laban, you've got in uh in Lum, you've got in Quantan, you've got technology to adopt in order to you for you to actually one of the things that you can do if you recalibrate it properly to be an ally is to have this nuclearpowered and and whatnot uh uh fleet be docking at your shipyards. Yeah.

To be maintained. Can you imagine the economic boom we're talking about? Yeah. This is big business. This is huge business. This is maritime uh like MRO, you know, whether it is repairs.

Why is our policy makers not even thinking about this right you know these are real technology that we are we are absorbing you know and and and and the and we we have to recalibrate. We have to think about the if the Arabs can come along with Trump, who are we? Do we know do we know better than the Arabs about their own religion? Give me a break. You know, so that is one area I see. The other area that we need to do which is actually where I say I don't know how you look at it. I've always said this about income about uh the so-called middle income trap of developing

countries. The middle income trap of developing countries number one reason is actually corruption. This is true. That's all. That is all. If you reduce corruption, okay, I guarantee you Malaysia per capita GDP will be at minimum $40,000 US and the system will be so efficient and we will see our people rich, you know. And then for and and for America, what are they looking at? If you ask me, for America, what are they looking at? what is actually the biggest leverage form that concerns them because Chang you rightly put one of the biggest issue for them is security right

and the biggest concern of I don't think they're worried about China from a military standpoint I don't think they're worried about uh about about Russia from a military standpoint they just don't Trump doesn't want the war that's all

right you know I I think if China could take Taiwan they would taken Taiwan 10 years ago could easily have and uh even now if they want to they can they they can if they want to but the seven fleet is there

I don't think they're going to allow that to happen. Yeah. Right. So if you ask me really really ask me what is the biggest threat from the point of view of America is actually the cells of terrorist organizations and those that are controlling government that they are worried about. So if we can partner them in terms of eliminating this threat, you know, in Indonesia, the biggest NGO is Narat Ulab. Okay. Their ex-president can't even free his so-called political partner, okay, who was the mayor of Jakarta from prison because of an alleged offense of insulting the religion when he was just

quoting the Quran. Right? So if we become the beacon of what uh a progressive Muslim country that is their partner. I think we hold the geopolitical center of Southeast Asia if not long if if not bigger. That's my pitch. makes a lot of sense on the proviso that the Malaysian government is actually listening.

They got people smart enough and with enough political will and courage to push it through. Yeah, it's not that difficult. No, it's not that difficult. But there's a lot of things which are not difficult but it's not done is because they don't have the will or the courage and there's a lot of embedded interest to uh continue the status quo.

And that's the truth of the matter. Yeah. I mean there's this these all these social policies that we have which are delirious to the economy but they continue to exist. Why? Why? But you know the funny thing as far as I look at it actually if you were to reverse course the fact is the people in power will still hold to power.

Mhm. Actually they will be making more money than they could ever dream of. Of course. Yeah. In the real world they can't hold a dime, right? But in politics they can because they can play it. But if if if you if you make the the economy richer, right?

You don't think of it that way though, mate. Yeah. Unfortunately. unfortunately but u I mean it's it's it's it's interesting I mean I was looking at the domestic I mean I don't know how much you you look at the domestic politics within uh within the American context because I I I'm I'm quite a close watcher of uh their domestic politics and I really believe and that's why you know people say that oh they can't trust America because uh you know after four years somebody else going to get voted in and what not and the policy change but I think what we are seeing today is going

to cement itself because Trump is just really a different animal altogether. Well, American political landscape has also changed. American political opinion by and large has also changed because if you remember if you go back all the way to 1973 row and weight that's the landmark Supreme Court decision

which legalized abortion right and it took 50 over years 50 years 2022 it was reversed finally by the Supreme Court so 73 to 2022

and out of the it was by a 54 four decision uh split decision. Out of the five Supreme Court justices that uh reverse that decision, three of them are Trump appointees by Trump one. So actually Trump takes credit for it.

Yeah. And that's why when the Trump campaign in Trump 2.0 uh he touched very much he was able to tap into the the real heart of America which wanted three things. Uh I will put it simply three things. One, we want to take back our children. We take back all our innocent children which are being aborted. So stop the abortion. And we want to take back our country, close the borders, kick out all the illegal immigrants. And the third one, we want to take back our education. Uh stop all this DI nonsense. Stop all this LGBT transition thingy and all those thingy. So we want back uh men and

women. That's it. So these three things became u basically the undertone for mother. Make America great again means I take back my country and this is how we take back our country and this is how we make America great again. So Trump's politics and his political campaign is very well resonated with all Americans. That's why it was a landslide. The the victory was a landslide.

Oh from a from a from from an American political term that is a landslide. Yeah. Yeah. Uh and and Sam, you're right because if you look at the near term, what is it like? So JD van seems to be going to be the next uh person to take over for next two terms. That's another eight years. And beyond JD Trump, um JD Vance, that's the entire group of Trump family members.

Dude, their bench is so deep in terms of talent. at his family. How many of them are possible presidential candidates? Right from from Trump Jr. uh to Eric now all the way to the youngest one, Bannon,

you know, my my baron, right? Baron is like, wow. Everybody say he looks like the next president. I mean, how old is he? Right. But Jason, I you look at it actually if you just if you just run down the the the current cabinet, right? They're all young.

Relatively all are young, right? If you ask me, you've got um you've got I mean, Rubio, Rubio, Rubio just blew my mind, right? He just knocked my socks off. Actually, I never expected him to to be as good as he is today, right? I mean, I I didn't even know Jake I didn't even know Vance until he was nominated to be honest. uh a apart from the movie that uh that was done based on his book

of allergy of something he all right I didn't expect him but you know he has comported himself extremely well as the VP and actually the way I saw it I can see actually the CEO in Donald Trump

actually mentoring his COO you asked me today I said JD Vance is the COO Okay. And if you look at Rubio, right, Rubio is almost like the right-hand man of uh whatever, you know, so the bench is extremely deep. You get um you know, I mean, the fact that you've got a Kennedy in your uh cabinet.

Yeah. and another Democrat who is I thought actually when Tulsi was running for presidency, right? I thought she was the best candidate that could beat Hillary, you know, but of course, you know, they were not about to allow Hillary to be swept away by either Tulsi or or Bernie Sanders at that particular time.

Trump has always been very vocal about wanting to surround himself with really clever people, right? I mean, you just look at his press secretary, this woman, Caroline Levit, right? Holy moly. She's what, 27 years old? She's bloody capable, man. The way she handles the media, I mean, I'm one of the media, right? The way she handles them, she sends messaging

on behalf of the president to them while answering the media question in the same sentence. And I'm like, wow, this woman, I mean, it's quite endemic of the the the the team that he's got, but I mean, I don't think we can be overly glossing about Trump. Hey, there's a lot of things that he's that he's still doing wrong, right? Obviously, he's got um there's a lot of criticism about him, you know, um um um with his Trump coin, his Melania coin, and you know, he's he's making money of the whole crypto space while also being pro crypto and all all that kind of

stuff. His style obviously ruffles a lot of feathers. There's still a lot of naysayers in our part of the world who still believe Trump is what he is, you know. I mean, we can talk about the people saying what a lot, right? So, yeah. Yeah. True. No, true. But I mean I I want to say something about I'm going to say something about the crypto crypto thing only on one thing as you know I I I don't comment on crypto as a as a industry because I have no experience in that right but

the family side has actually built up that crypto uh market right for them. Yeah. Okay. The fact that they they are using having Trump as president helps their position. Yeah.

But that's not corruption, buddy. That's not corruption. As far as I'm concerned, that's not corruption. It's just like you if you become if you if you are the CEO of a company, right? And then that you are doing oil and gas, right? Your brother decides that I'm going to do construction. Okay? And because my brother is the president, my construction company uh booms because people want to be associated with me. People wants to buy my property because why they think it has cache because of the president. That's not corruption.

Well, it's a fine line, isn't it? I mean the day before his it's the day before his inauguration him and his wife have memecoins uh launched in their name right

so what and you know memecoins are basically culture tokens right so so it goes out to I don't know how much money and it gets dumped so some people make a lot of money and some people lo lose a lot of money

but I think there's something inherently compromised about the whole situation I mean call me oldfashioned right no the only thing I would give to you. I I I I like the digital asset space. I think it makes a lot of sense. But for him to be involved and his his family to be so overtly involved,

there there's something that doesn't smell right. I am not I'm not soal trying to defend it uh Trump or whatever or or everything that he does. Let's let's be very clear here. Donald Trump is a capitalist.

He likes money. Okay. Let's be very clear. His whole family likes money. Here is very simple. Here's very simple with that respect, right? Okay. He's not selling the memecoin out of the Oval Office or the government. No. Right.

No. But but if you're dumb enough, if you're dumb enough to go and buy uh an asset and later it get dumb. That's your stupidity. I don't give a Yeah. I mean, that's the way I look at capitalism.

Family profit from someone's stupidity. I don't care. I really don't care. Market Let the market forces. The market forces decide. I really don't care, dude. Dude, I don't care about renewables either. Okay. But if you're going to give me a I think that renewables is a scam, okay? I think it's a it's a bubble. And and I I think I've been proven right right now, especially now with China overproducing all their solar panels, all their batteries, blah blah blah that they having to dump. Right now, if China wants to give me uh you know, at 5 cents to the dollar, and I can sell to at at at

$50 uh at $50, I don't care. Even though I don't believe in it, who gives a I'm making money out of it. Chang I read a very interesting paper long time back I think if I'm not wrong it came from uh uh London school of economics and this was a very strange paper because it wrote about there's good corruption and there's bad corruption

corruption is corruption okay this is interesting I've never heard this one because the the the argument in that paper was I couldn't locate it anymore You say that, hey, let's be real. Every single civilization that came out, even the Asian tigers, every one of them was built on corruption.

Mhm. Taiwan was built on corruption. The Ging was fully corrupt. South Korea, South Korea and all those big big uh you know uh trading houses were corrupt. Japan same thing. So every one of them and today we call them oh these are the Asian tigers the Asian dragons and we

so yeah so I mean although Sam has a point if Malaysia to eradicate corruption we will be twice the GNI per capita fine sure but at what point what where does it go from from black and white to gray that's the question you see right um

you're right I mean there's good cholesterol and there's bad cholesterol right there this is this HDL or is this LDL you know what I mean right where do you draw the line well I I draw the line at this I mean I I I mean We all wish that there is zero corruption, right? Yes. We all wish there's zero corruption.

We I I will take the reality that you want to have a system where you eliminate as much corruption as you can so that you can it can go to productive uh the capital goes for productive uh uh uh deployment, right? But if there is going to have to be no choice some form of corruption at the very least I see the twin tower up there and it is generating income and it not just know I can see the KIA um uh uh uh uh what do you call increasing the uh the traffic um and and bringing in more investments. I can see the highway making um uh making uh transportation uh more uh more more efficient and and

increasing our GDP. I don't mind. Correct. Correct. But if those things could have been built at a third of the cost because without the corruption, why not, right? Of course. I'm not I'm not denying that. Of course. Of course. What I what what is the worst thing that can happen to us is like what happened with one IMDb, which is basically you build nothing. you go and take uh uh you go and uh uh take debt upon the country and you you you take the money away and the people has nothing except for a debt burden.

Yeah. And can you imagine how sickening that is? You've got a prime minister who was also the finance minister and the travesty is that he didn't know what's going on. I mean that's his defense. Well, so let's go back back to America. Yeah, back to our topic. There is this comparison that's very clear.

Trump, yes, you're saying that okay. I mean, he's not perfect. Nobody is perfect. No, no, we he is being uh using manipulating his family, manipulating whatever relationship that they have uh for their own good. compared to Biden. I mean, if you're talking about sheer money laundering, 100 billion goes into Ukraine and it goes round and then 20 billion comes back

y into the pockets of the Democrats. I don't know who else, you know, whether is Biden or and his whole gang and those MF, you know, military industry.

No, no, you're right. But two two wrongs don't make a right. Yeah. So now we talking now we are talking about the extent of ah so in that spectrum that's where the Americans most of them will still say h it's okay uh we we can accept that so long as uh our pockets are still okay we have got increase in like you were saying earlier on if the economy is good uh our we have increased uh revenue uh we have less taxes to pay and the inflation is kept at uh at bay And now goods are getting cheaper. I'm okay. Uh I I will not I won't take too much issue about that until such a

time for the LSP piece which is there's good corruption and there's bad corruption. Right. Yeah. Right. Good good corruption it's it's a thick layer that serves most people rather than bad corruption which only serves a minority only two person or something like that. Yeah. Jason, I mean, tell me whether uh I'm right or you disagree on this particular assessment on the uh investments or commitment for investments that has been announced by the Trump administration, right? Uh I mean some figures put it upwards to 9 trillion. Uh some figures put it upwards to 13 trillion or or

more. Now let's take the lower number of 9 trillion. Okay. Um, I would have actually I mean but then I'm not a politician, right? I would have loved to see the campaign even before he came in or even at the start or or maybe even at the start of his presidency to have actually told the American people that look, we're going to have some pain before uh before we we we see results, right? because I believe what he has done with the tariffs um and how he's bringing I mean they say oh there's no way Apple will come back well Apple just said they coming back and they've committed what 500 billion

y right so that's just one okay and they've restructed American steel you know so to me I always look at from the time we go and get uh a loan from the bank, okay? Or the or an investor commits money, right? To the point of deployment and actually seeing that money on the ground, you're probably looking at a period of between at best 8 months, probably on average 12 to 16 months and then you will see the dividends of people working on all this invested capital.

Yes. Right. So this is the only concern I have uh because I think we're looking at a midterms in November next year. Yeah. Right. So this is where you don't want the agenda to be derailed because they have not seen the dividend,

you know. But I I truly believe the dividend of all this will be coming in, you know, within that period I just mentioned. Do you think what do you think about that kind that that that assessment?

Well, my assessment on the midterms is that it won't be too bad actually for for Trump. Uh I mean, traditionally, historically, a sitting president loose will will do very poorly in the midterms. But I think this is going to be one of those cases where it is going to be a bit different. Why? uh so because if you look at the domestic indicators uh actually the GDP is up from the last quarter was 3.8 8. Now the third one, third quarter is 3.9.

So it's slightly going up. And for America having a GDP of 3.9 actually is big. I mean, oh dude, I was telling Chang I said if he I I was very conservative. I was I I had a I I had a a range of 3 to 3.2.

Yeah. So even then that kind of growth I mean look at Europe you you subject all together. So that's a any other big countries just to even begin to talk about 3% growth is almost uh very very difficult. Okay. And then go on one two the uh unemployment rate has gone down.

Uh it was about 4.3 and the latest quarter has gone down to 4.1. That means more people are being employed. uh non-farm payrolls have ticked up a bit except for last August was the last one that was released only 22,000 jobs were created but usually before August and all the jobs that were created was at least in the hundreds of thousand 100,000 plus that means every month there are 100,000 jobs being created uh so that means there are more jobs u income is up and then inflation is at bay basically there is no runaway food prices or fuel prices. I mean gone are

the days where you talk about petrol is so expensive in in uh in US today. Okay. And amongst all these things um he is also now beginning to provide subsidy to those who are impacted by his tariff strategy.

Soybean that's soy farmers uh and all that say okay no worry we will provide. So he give billions of thing and the latest I heard they just did a deal with India. So India is going to take up the L. India will buy. So China don't buy is okay but now Modi is coming in. So there are a lot of ways that he is able Trump is smart enough to make all these things happen and as far as the democratic branch B is concerned like you say they don't have that kind of depth and that kind of talents. So, how are they really going to look at uh to perform well in the midterms uh election? 435 seats. I

think in terms of the Cong Republican will still hold the House, maybe even increase Senate seats 53 47. I think they may even increase it further a bit.

Really? Maybe I'm looking at probably about 56. Uh so they will gain but they can't hit 60. 60 is the magic number but the problem is that 60 is tough. It's very tough.

It's very difficult. Traditionally you never you look at the states and all that. You never had that and there are too many rhinos within the Republican party. Republicans in name only which actually vote against him. Uh this is what happened and contributed to the shutdown. um because some of those people who are the Republicans but they rather side with the Democrats and uh okay nail it down so the government is shut down technically things like that. I was talking about mainly Bane and um was that Susan Collins and

we got characters like Mitt Romney is not great on Trump you know so I think the other guy Christy guy and even the the Senate uh chairman who's that Mitch McDonald

Mitch McConnell he doesn't like Trump doesn't like him oh he's he's he's he's ending his term I think he's finishing his term yeah so I think so much so that Trump has started talking about I to do a limitation on the term no more indefinite term for for politician I mean these are all these old

I think it's a good idea so senators who are already about to kick the bucket and they're still walking you know 90 years old and still want to be a you got zombie zombie congressman and senators you know

there's there's there there's a couple of things right I mean um we're now in October and midterms are about 13 months from now right? One year from um we've got the sitting Fed governor that uh I mean but by in all probability by the end of this year there could be at least two more rate cuts, right? And next year another at least two or three more which would normalize interest rates to around about 2 and a half 3% in America. That would make house loans cheaper.

That would reduce the number of uh repossessions of cars. I think re car repos now at an all-time high. Median house prices in America are crazy high. 450,000 or something across America median. That's unaffordable for most people. If he can bring interest rates down, that could well tip the scales in his favor and get some of those seats on his side. I mean, that would really cause a lot of ease a lot of pain for normal Americans because right now they their bills, I mean, on a monthly basis is crazy. The interest cost and that will of course alleviate the pain for

government interest rates as well, government interest costs as well. Yes. I I don't know how much is private equity buying up the the property, you know, or or or housing property market, you know, I think that should be banned if if if at all. I don't think they should be in the business in that.

Blackstone is one of the biggest buyers. Yeah, I think that's really and that's where my problem is with uh with the with uh uh pane the the capital market um and and how I think it has become u in in all frankness I think it's it's it's gone negative to the real economy. Uh but going back to uh maybe you know um since we are talking about Congress um government shutdown is uh uh is still going on.

Hopefully the government would be open by next year cuz a lot of a lot of spending has been stopped right because the government department is just shut. Well the fact that actually things are still going well with the government shutdown tells a lot. Actually there there are exceptions to the rule because essential services like defense security and all that still continue

only because there are these 12 uh appropriations subcommittee that define this uh and the filibuster rule is crazy. That's the one that stopping everything. That's where the 60 senator thingy.

I I'm only going to say this on on this point. When they had the protest of no kings, right, when the Democrat assembled a protest of no kings, right? My rebuttal to that is, oh yeah, your king just can't pass his budget, you know? I mean, how ridiculous. And that goes back to your point. The Democrats are not offering anything on the table that actually makes sense from a policym and how to actually make America great. How are you going to win elections? I mean, you can win in a deep state deep state or a Democrat controlled uh I mean they've gerrymandered California.

Yeah, they've gerrymandered New York. I mean California has like I if I'm not mistaken whether it's California or New York has got like 40% Republican but actually zero seats Republican you know

Washington you know Washington state yeah and then um and and and and this uh this Zoran Mandani's uh election uh for the New York City mayor right to me I told my American friends I think let Zoran win you know Okay, because let that let that be the poster boy of Democrat policies, you know, I mean he's talking about I I don't know whether you saw the the interview. I saw this interview and uh to the credit of the interviewer which is very rare on mainstream you know which is uh she pushed back and asked him how are you going to pay for all these uh free buses

and all that twice asked him because he was you know so he finally said oh we're going to increase uh the tax on uh on the riches uh by 2%. Good luck to you. I think I think Florida is going to be a bit more populated. That's the way I see it. And then you're going to have to tax your own people. You know, it's just, you know, that's what happened to Europe.

Yeah. One one thing that Trump has going for him is that he has got this group of very rich donors, financial backers. So much so that there was some issue about say who's going to pay our soldiers you know and then suddenly he say well I got a big donor who has just come forward and told me that uh if we are short we can't pay then I will pay he didn't name that person it goes into billions uh and a lot of people is beginning to speculate and say that that's probably Alen M

so Alen M well I mean that's not out of the realm of possibility right yeah so those one of those I mean he's got multiple billionaire friends all over right I mean even in in in Saudi Arabia when he was that at at that that

signing I mean you got people like like what Ederson uh the family and uh you know these are people who funded him at least 100 million in this campaign I mean easily he can just ask money from them

by the way now you mentioned it right talking talking about recalibrating Indonesia has just offered 200 uh peacekeeping force for the for Gaza for Gaza. Oh, there you go. Right.

Okay. Yeah. You know, I mean, look at how they're doing the recalibration. Yeah. I'm sure Pakistan will also be doing the same. Yeah. Right. Uh so they've got all kinds of arrangement. Trump seems to be suddenly

and that very close to Pakistan. So that that actually is changing all the power dynamics in the world, you know. Exactly. Right. I mean when you can bring a Southeast Asian most populous Muslim uh army that has no quarter in the fight.

Yeah. Right. I my only concern is actually because I mean let's put it this way. Hamas is a bloody terrorist organization you know you know and and if you the longer they are there not uh not demilitarized the worse it is for the Palestinian people themselves. So the that's the only problem is the logistics because uh I think when the peace deal was made it was basically an opportune uh I mean this is how nimble they are. I think the Israeli strike on Qatar uh inside Qatar was actually the impetus you know and so they went in but they had no peacekeeping plan ready you know

so I think it's probably going to take something like 3 months at least to organize this okay so let's maybe let's let's let's draw a line in the sand and and and end with like um some recol so let's assume the government is listening let's assume they're taking notes okay let's assume that they actually listening to people who are just going to make suggestions as to how this reccalibration takes place, right? So, I don't know, let's go around the table. Uh, you talked about how our our ports might be used for um for support centers for the US military,

the US Navy, right? I think that makes a lot of sense. I think you you you make a lot of sense in terms of how Malaysian businesses can reook their position VV in the US, right? I think for me personally um we could look about at at at at redefining how the flow of people and trade between ourselves and America in terms of the visas in terms of the costs in terms of um um going over there for for trade and business to to smoothen that process. I think that makes a lot of sense, right? Um I don't know what do you think? Um how how would you draw a line on this?

Let me just say let me just put it vly. If there is a personality or a leader in Malaysia who is who has ambition to be the next secretary general of United Nations,

that makes a lot of sense. Yeah. Uh wouldn't it be good to get on the right side of Trump? Mhm. because Malaysia support we we will I mean assuming we have a candidate uh for SG UN our Muslim friends and the Muslim OIC countries will definitely support Malaysia. Now we only need the other half. Uh so if the western countries can come aboard and say yeah Malaysia candidate will be very good and all Trump need to do is yes support Malaysian candidate and all the airlines

everybody go along. Yeah, that's it. And we will have an XG from Malaysia, you know, for the first time. Uh, so that will be a definitely a plus for us whatever Trump thinks of the United Nations as secondary. But the fact that this can happen,

yeah, right. So this is a possible dividend. I I I I can I yeah sure on on that actually I think the if you really study the 20 piece 20 point peace plan right it is very fair to all parties right it basically allows for it says specifically the allows for the governance of gazins themselves right it is already supported by the Arab countries all Okay. What is the difficulty for us to say we will will recognize Israel now? Okay. And join in into the peacekeeping and making sure that all parties are protected, the place is debilitarized. We have the experience of um of of of

demilitarizing the communist party, right? Our commandos are first class, you know. So you know we we can actually bring up not just prestige but confidence of the western American international community to say that Malaysia is a trusted ally and a fair one at it. All right. bring in investments here because they are part of you know uh uh uh the civilized uh uh and and and forwardlooking nations period

and come and talk on the podcast. I mean, right. You need a you you need a loudspeaker, right? You need to have a a media channel, right? Yeah. Come and have a chat. I mean, it's an open invitation. All right. All right.

I think it's been a good conversation. I think it has. Yeah. Yeah. Certainly. Thank you for listening to the world's biggest podcast. Yes. With Sam, myself, Jason. Jason, thanks a lot for coming along. That was very interesting. Yeah.

Thank you. I'll see you guys. Um like, subscribe. Let's get the elgo going so that we can reach more people. You know, YouTube seems to not like the way we are talking for some reason. Okay. So,

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