Gut Shot Quick Take: Venezuela Maduro Extraction and Iran Riots

Happy new year ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to Gutshot podcast 2026. Now uh this is a quick gutshot take on uh the events recently in Venezuela and uh in Iran. Um and I have with me uh our friend say Ali. Yeah.

Good morning. Happy new year. Yeah. So um say let's talk about Venezuela quickly. Uh what has happened on the ground. But before I do that, I I would like to uh tell uh our audience that actually in episode 37 that was dropped almost 3 weeks ago, um the gutshot discussed uh uh what we titled as the empire strikes back, Trump's doctrine revealed in Venezuela. So we were very precient in anticipating what was going to happen. So I urge everybody to go there if you want a longer take on it. But uh uh site maybe I I go to you first and then uh on on what you take on what is happening in Venezuela.

Well, this is uh second uh second military action by Donald Trump in his second term uh in a few months. He the the attack against the Iranian nuclear facilities and then now uh Venezuela. Both of them have something unique.

They they only took hours. the the raid on Iran, the nuclear facilities was just a flyby. They flew by, they dropped the bombs and they left. I think it took less than a few it only took a few minutes. Uh this Venezuela action from beginning to end was like 7 hours.

Yes. From the time they crossed the frontier into Venezuela and Maduro was in New York, it's like 7 7 hours. Yeah. So it's uh quickly in and out meaning that

they had very specific objectives. This I think this is also the Donald Trump way of doing things very specific objectives and they achieved it. uh so militarily a highly successful operation it has restored the the what do you call this faith and the face of the US military because in previous cases they have failed in these kind of operations in the past remember the famous Jimmy Carter's rescue attempt in Iran all those years ago

uh so this has been quite a spectacular military achievement and uh they have the target uh in hand. Uh you can debate the morality of it. I mean people have their views but uh what's done has been done.

Yeah. Well, I don't debate the morality of it. I look at it as a geopolitical power play. And uh as I mentioned, if you look at our episode 37, we said that uh that this Trump administration has been very transparent. They rolled out their national security strategy 2025 uh last year and this is exactly what has unfolded which is uh uh which is the chess board has already been stated to you this is the hemis this is our hemisphere and if you look at all the interrelated uh play that has been done by the Trump administration I think what we are seeing is the superpower

establishing its territorial uh uh it's territorial uh control or hedgeimonyy as you want to call it whichever choice of word you want to take. Uh and also you are looking at them uh planning the uh planning their their whole geopolitic strategy coming for years ahead. And this is this is just the start of the chessboard. Okay. And if you look at it, um people say about oil, I'll say this about about it. That oil that is in the uh in the ground uh in uh in Venezuela is not that easy for you to actually get it up to the level that is going to be satisfactory.

You know, their production capacity and capability has been very much deteriorated over the last two decades at least. Okay. So I think that's the secondary part of uh of of their concern. It's more a geopolitical play. It's more um uh a statement. I mean I'm I'm going to end this part on the Venezuela say in this way say is that the uh the general in his uh press conference with Donald Trump and Marakur Rubio and Big Hath said this very clearly. I paraphrase that we can strike you anywhere in the world. Okay? At any time of their choosing. It's a statement. So take it how you

want to to take it. So we go to and and that for that part then I mean uh let's uh shift shift then to uh Iran and uh say you have a few things we were talking about Iran and what's going on over there. Well, the the takeaway from Venezuela is that you need bigger aircraft carriers.

Like somebody said, carry a big stick. Who said that? Huh? Walk slowly and carry a big stick. But carry a big stick. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Iran is uh I checked Iran this morning. Iran this round of uh protest and quite serious turmoil started on uh 28th of Janu December Sunday. So today is Monday that makes it uh 7 today is the ninth day actually and uh this morning I just checked the news coming out of Iran and uh uh it is becoming a bit more violent because people are now actually uh setting more fires. setting fires is quite common. They burn cars, police

cars and tires and things like that. But what I saw this morning was people throwing molotov cocktails. So that is a bit of escalation in the reaction by the people who are protesting. They are not just marching in the streets and shouting slogans. They actually throwing molotov cocktails. And there was another video I saw of uh some young people actually having guns and they were shooting in the air. These were AK-47 Kalashnikov. is uh I think they've taken it from the police. So this is a significant escalation and for for a certainty the protests have not uh reduced. In fact

they're getting worse. So the the latest news I heard this morning is that there is they are there I mean the rumors are going on. These are rumors but they are rumors nevertheless that the leadership is looking at possible exit from Thran or from Iran. They suggesting that they might escape to other countries meaning that they have uh they are really considering uh giving up because uh despite more than a week having passed there has been no significant reaction by the government they've gone quiet the supreme leader Ayat Ali Kini has basically disappeared he made a short statement

saying that people who are protesting are anti-Islamic he's using the religious label but uh that's all he said you know there was nothing much uh he could say The president possesses possessian he made he said a few other things and he was very consiliatory. In fact he said that the fault is theirs. He said quite uh uh frankly that the fault is theirs. They have uh disappointed the people. So the people at their wits end. I think they've had enough of this uh regime that has been ruling Iran now for 47 years. And we I I see this protest 2020 started in December 28th last year as a

continuation of remember that Masa Amini riots. Yes. 2020. The lady that was uh the 22 year old child was who died. Yeah. Who died in custody because she was not wearing a hijab.

Uh so that was uh 2022 23 around there. And uh although the the protests were quite violent and many people got killed by the police and then it didn't really taper off you know there there's always been continuous protest in Iran throughout uh but maybe on a smaller scale workers going on strike uh steel mill workers going on strike it has been happening continuously in Iran and this time the the the trigger was the crash in the Iranian currency prices going up uh suddenly ly again again they've been going up for a long time but the 48% inflation uh and then there are things other

shortages in the country which has triggered uh this round of protest and this so it is continuous that means it's always just under the surface people are angry and things are boiling you know so this has now exploded exploded on the surface and that's what we are seeing now and where will it go I I think it's not going to go away so soon. Uh there is a real possibility now that the regime could be toppled,

but let's see what happens. Yeah. Yeah. My my take on this is um I think the Persians, let's call them what it is, they're not Arabs, they're Persians, right? Um the Persians are just tired of uh uh religious rule and repression um by the mulas. whether they are in turban or they in armani suits.

These guys are in turbans. Yeah. Well, they've got their president is in Armani suit, right? So I mean irrespective I think that's what you get when you u govern uh using religion and the result is 47 years old 47 years of repression and uh economic collapse

and non-performance non-delivery. Yeah. So I think uh at the end of the day, no matter how many guns you point at your people, your people will rise up. And I think that's a lesson for everybody, especially the Muslims around the world, including here. Um uh I think uh our leadership should take note of all this and understand that uh our c our country all countries for that matter has to be um has has has to keep up with the 21st century. the I think what all these people fail to understand I don't know what's wrong with them really this is typical third world

behavior but what they all fail to understand is that above everything else throughout history more than anything else people they want their freedom

if you try to put curbs on the people's individual freedom you're playing with fire this is what is happening in Iran now and throughout history people have always risen up against even the word tyrant, they've risen up against tyrants because tyrants are people who infringe upon your freedom.

You become a tyrant when you infringe your neighbor's freedom. That that's as it's as simple as that. But but then when you repress that as well, you actually collapse the the the the engine that drives your economy, which is your the mentality of your people.

Ultimately, everything gets destroyed. Correct. When you're a tyrant, you oppress people, suppress people, everything goes out the window. But the basic thing which these people do not realize is that they feel and since you mentioned our country cuz there are people in this country too,

they use different names like conformity and uh one of our great leaders used the phrase like we have to what uh design our society in our own uh in our own mold. in Malaysia awani these are all these buzzwords basically what it means is that I will tell you what to do

what that means is they're curbing people's choice curbing people's freedom what that means is curbing our right to speak and to question this is this is it this is the this is the sepuku you know the harakiri where you kill yourself this is the decisive cut you inflict on your society when you tell people uh you must conform to what I think is the best uh let's you We will develop society according to our own mold. These are all the buzzwords. Basically, what it means is that

uh we're going to create riots and protests in the street. That's what it means. Yeah. I think here's it'll end up in riots and protests and actually the toppling down of people at the end of the day which in our in our country was the toppling of the of the old regime in 20 2018 and they've been floating around since then.

Yeah. And I think um I mean uh maybe to wrap out this quick take uh the two interesting part about these two countries and the similarities is actually both were actually very rich countries. All right. Venezuela was one of the richest country in the world. Uh they had uh

it still is they are the largest oil reserves. Well I mean it depends on whether the people is the richness or not. Um but uh they were producing at one point I think in excess of more probably two or four 4 million barrels a day and right now

I think they're just slightly above us. Uh and Iran is I think the fourth largest oil with fourth largest oil reserves in the top five. And Iran they have two things. They have 90 million people which is a fantastic resource and a 5,000 I don't know how many thousand year old Persian civilization you know

these are the people who who discovered mathematics and everything do you know that almost the entire body of Muslim scientists they are Persians or were Persians Kawarismi all these guys I imam Gazali they were all Persians Abu Hanifh they were all Persians so The Persian heritage of knowledge and seeking knowledge, discussion, inquiry is it goes back thousands of years you know and this mulas as you just mentioned

they come and tell people that uh at so late in the day 21st century uh no you can't do this you can't do that you can't dress like this you can't dress like that stop thinking and when you do that you end up with the riots in in the street that's what what is happening now in Iran

okay I guess with that we'll end this quick take for Oh, thank you so much. Uh, thank you. See you again.