Ft Jason Leong: The China-Japan beef and what it means for a Unipolar world

Hi everybody, welcome back to the Gutshot podcast. I'm Shamsul Sam and today we have back our geopolitics expert Mr. Jason Leong. Yeah, thank you.

Yeah. Um Jason, let's jump right into this. I think uh we were talking about uh the ASEAN summit and then the Apac summit when Trump come came over. I think we want to do a uh a bit of an analysis on the current events with respect to that and how the world that we are in right now especially now that the federal shutdown in uh in in DC um in America has uh basically o over.

Yes. Right. Yeah. with the crossover from the Democrat to vote to get the 60 vote. Yeah. Now just waiting for the house to meet the house representative to meet I think within the next few days. Uh so they will probably meet and then uh all they need is a simple majority. Uh and then that's it then proceed

then it proceeds. It's already an interim package being prepared. Uh so I think the money is uh coming out. So I think most of the it's it's a good sign because the Democrats themselves felt that they cannot be seen to be keeping uh their holding the whole nation from ransom for politics because it's going to backfire. So these eight democrat uh senators who cross uh probably is thinking about the next election. Uh so they would they would get some some support because people will say yeah at least you don't only think about your own political power influence and keep playing politics. Uh

at least you say okay well I think it's a cave in if you ask me doing this for the people. I mean that's all performative if you ask me. It's it's a caving in. And the problem with it is uh you can see I mean the the uh chuck humor looks looks like doesn't look good coming out of it at all.

Yeah, it doesn't look good. Yeah. I I think the the real if you ask me the real um the real threat to uh uh Trump's policies or action in terms of his so-called make make America great again u policies I think is this challenge at the Supreme Court on his use of emergency powers for uh the implementation of tariffs. I think that's the one to watch because uh a tariff policy is uh is one of the cornerstone of how he's got he wants to turn around the US economy.

Yes. Right. I mean and uh uh not just implement an import tax which means that that's to a certain extent addressing uh some of the deficit situation. The other part is actually reshoring which actually he has uh in in essence I wouldn't say I mean actually has put a catalyst even within the last 8 months of the uh administration right so that goes then to um where we are at uh as a global situation um the maintenance of uh uh American uh leadership in commerce uh in regulating the uh the trade regime right uh whether directly or indirectly uh whether this is a uniolar world again

whether it's back to a uniolar world or whether was it never because some people are telling us that this is a multipolar world right I beg to defer but I I mean I have my reasons for that

but uh you know Jason why don't you give me give give us your thoughts on where we are at after the uh uh Trump street and by the way I think he I I think it was it was a very interesting

uh uh flip when Trump came here the coverage of his uh attendance for both Assean and Ape and then in Japan and and and of course APEC at South Korea. Right. Yes.

Right. I think the coverage was extremely positive from the regional media. Very positive. Yeah. Which is uh which surprised me actually to be honest with you. Right. Uh because we are not I mean our regional media are not known to be very pro-American. It's very more you know it's very Asiaentric and therefore more pro uh China. Go ahead.

Uh let me just go back a bit to the Supreme Court thingy. Right? Because uh uh it the arguments are are quite long drawn and it can get a bit complicated. Uh but from what I see uh the decision will be reserved and judgment will come out likely in about maybe next March or April. It will take some time.

Oh really? Because it's very complicated issue. Uh there has been quite robust questioning by the Supreme Court judges on the council. But in a landmark case like this uh uh there are very high stakes involved.

Yeah. But so far based on record the Supreme Court of US Scot has been quite um deciding a lot of decisions which has favored Trump and Republican. I don't see any difference in this particular case because too much is at stake and then the national security uh issue has also been raised. So if you take away that power uh then what what what power does the president has and uh should there be a judicial overreach in this case where judicially uh the Supreme Court is trying to to set certain limits. Uh so but also we need to remember is that out of the uh Supreme Court judges at least three of

them were Trump nominees uh in his first administration. Yeah. There might be a fourth nominee if justice uh John Roberts retire the chief justice. So Trump might get another chance to nominate another one. From what I can see is nothing is so clear. media, mainstream media seem to like to report the negative part of it saying that Supreme Court is uh going to rule against Trump. Uh but it does not mean that because uh asking a lot of questions and I think the Trump lawyers are quite good because uh they are able to answer most of the questions. Anyway, so going into that whether America

um is still the undisputed leader of the world on a uniolar world. I think the definition on uniolarity perhaps we may defer there.

Yeah. Okay. on a traditional definition on uniolar world or uniolarity meaning that there is one single power that is so preponderant that there is virtually no challenger so we're so dominating but I believe we can say that there are shades of uniolarity degrees of uniolarity because uh if you go by the traditional definition unchallenged and virtual one person. May if you go on a slightly different kind of definition on uniolarity say if you define it as a functional or domain uniolarity meaning that there is or there can be nations in the world who are very good

in a particular sphere of influence. Uh so that particular function or that particular domain uh that may be a different kind of unipolarity and there is also this two concept when a lot of academics and think tankers like to talk oh this is now a multipolar multipolar world and everything else but they forget that there is a great difference between a multipolar world and multiple poles of polarity.

That's a good that's a good observation. Yeah, because in this world, this is a very complicated world, there will always be multiple poles or polarity. That means nations which control or has big influence in certain domains, they are a pole. For example, China will see themselves as a poll. Uh we are big economically, we are big so in so many things. uh so would Europe see themsel as a pole because we were once a very great empire. We are still very central and uh India would say we are also a pole because demographically we are going to be the biggest and the most populous

country in the world and numbers has its own influence. It will speak a lot and we can do incredible things with numbers. So South Africa will say oh as far as the African continent is concerned we are a pole because we are the leaders of South Africa. So everywhere Asia there's Japan or even South Korea everybody or even Brazil will try to say yeah we are poor in Latin America but multiple pose of polarity does not equal multi-olarity does not make a multiple a multipolar world because

interesting out of this multiple poles each of them will begin to ally themselves to who is the biggest taco out there. Yeah. And inevitably that points to the US, right? So as you can see all the big uh countries that matter, most of the European countries, Asia, Japan, South Korea, Australia uh and even Southeast Asia and even now we're looking at India, most of them are already leaning US. So it's quite inevitable now because US will by default they already are the the global leader.

But let me ask you a question. Do you mind if I jump in just sure please please do I mean at this uh because you said I want some a bit of clarity on your thoughts. Why do you think or why do you feel that uh uh the other polarity to a large extent is jumping on to u the American leadership? What makes you say that? Where do you see the sign of that? In what way?

Especially when uh Trump came in on this 2.0 uh administration because Trump asserts leadership. Uh he is a more assertive leader compared to the previous one. Uh Biden who who was virtually uh on vacation perpetually blur and unable to be to assert any leadership whatsoever. You know, not charismatic, unable to articulate anything. So uh people don't see that kind of leadership and they also do not know what is the strategy and the direction that US wants to go there a lot of uncertainty. So when there is uncertainty there will be competitors uh who will come in let's

say you know very crudely the pretenders to the throat people like China and all that will say okay now we are the alternative and then even small pretenders like bricks as we know it's totally inconsequential but they uh they have an overrated self uh self-concept of their well worth their well-being and the their importance actually not important at all. So when an American leader like Trump begins to articulate his strategy and start to take action that is very clear.

Yeah. Uh and he is someone who is prepared to use his power whether it is military whether is economic whether it is political or geopolitical he's prepared to do that.

It's very strange isn't it? I mean the the mainstream media, the left uh side of it, I think they coined the word taco uh for Trump, which is Trump always uh wet um uh chicken out, right?

Yeah. Always chicken out. Yeah. Unfortunately, it's proven uh it's proven the other way around if you ask me. Right. He said he's going to implement the tariffs. He did. I mean it's a pretty uh it's a pretty fundamental businessman negotiating tactic which is always coming into a deal high

and negotiate. Yeah. And bring it to a point where actually both parties can agree that okay a deal is done. Yes. Right. So I think like you said on that score the Supreme Court has got a very high stakes it has to confer on um which is you've got this about at least I think they have at least a trillion already collected uh and also the uh investments associated with all those tariffs and trade deals that uh they're going to unwind if uh they go the other way around. Right. So that's a that that is that is a big stake. But you can see already like you said he's taken action. I think uh I had

a conversation uh uh uh with an American uh friend of mine in New York uh on the on the last podcast uh which is um uh which I think and I I think he's uh quite rightly put as well. We we the the action in Iran is a military action that was uh somehow I think it's a needed action to show the world that he actually is or America and Trump under Trump leadership is willing to use military power.

Yes, it has to. So you've got one on commerce, you've got one side on the military power, right? It takes back the situation. All right. And yes, you can say certain way he's a bit unpredictable in his actions, but that unpredictability is his predictability.

It's an asset to him, isn't it? Right. Isn't it? So um yeah, I mean you you see how the trade deal has come along. So I I can understand why you go to the situation that you know the the currents has returned or you know the the the the I mean to to where the polarity is you know and it takes leadership.

Yeah. Yeah. You see people see power and they can sense the power especially when the leader like President Trump who is quite prepared to exercise the power. So Iran is a excellent example. So, Israel was the one doing most of the strikes and all the uh bombing until they needed some very special bunker busting bombs. You know that is uh only US has has those uh and when US needs to do that, Trump step up and say yes, he ordered the strike.

Yeah. No hesitation. and he ordered the strike and all the strikes were precision targeted. They hit all the enrichment facilities

right and after that there were no more what do you call that I mean there can be people say oh he didn't hit the plane but you see this kind of thing cannot cannot be hidden people will know whether you actually hit it or you don't hit it even the ayatah and the the supreme leader come out and say uh we can always restart I mean why you want to talk about restart something if your whole your thing is not already damaged is totally damaged and you think it's so easy to restart the enrichment facility

I mean this is takes a lot of time that means uh the major enrichment facilities are all have been destroyed so now to restart it will take years and how many of the scientists are still left because as you know in the runup to that many of the nuclear scientists

were all taken out either assassinated, disappeared or whatever. Many of the Iranian leaders have also been taken out. Yeah. Uh so including the former president uh so we have a new president and even commander generals also taken out. There are many so the only one left standing is basically people like Ayatollah.

I was quite surprised that they didn't take out the Ayatollah and I I think maybe it was a strategic decision. I I believe it is because if he were to take him out, uh I believe Trump said he knows exactly where he is.

Yeah. But if he does that, there may be a backlash. Correct. Overdoing it. Yeah. So you have disabled most of the important things. So let the own the own people the the people of Iran decide. The Ayatollah himself is not that popular within uh Iran. So the younger people of Iran, the younger generation uh if there is a proper democratic vote uh because the Ayatollah is not uh voted in you know like the president right so he is like by it's a very complicated three uh three sector of power that uh elect kind of the ayatah there's the army there is the democratic parliament

and then there is the the uh the the the guardians the moolas uh I think it's just a matter of time it's just a question of when u he is also very old 86 years old and I heard was also health is also failing

well I think the problem in u I mean in Iran uh mostly like any country of that nature whoever holds the gun is the one most of the time unless the gun decides not to mean to actually go to the other side Right. Yes. Yeah. Always in a revolution. Yes.

That that's the whole case. That's what happened with the sha remember when he fell uh fell fell down. So but I mean let's so moving back to our region right in Asia. um the there few there's there's one interesting development um recently that I mean that I'd like you to comment on uh and uh enlighten us uh which is I uh which was just recently I think yesterday the report was where uh China's envoy uh sent out the uh sent out a tweet or message or whatever right which uh I mean basically uh talk about the beheading uh the leader of Japan, right? For um for for her

uh basically saying that any um any threat on Taiwan is a is is is a is is also a threat or or to paraphrase to Japan, right? Uh that's a very interesting development from two angles. But I'd like to hear from you first because she is a protetéé of Shinszu AB.

Yes. Right. Who was assassinated. Yes. Okay. So and he it was the same line that Shinszu Abbe uses. Okay. So I think what what what what do you see there? What let's let's first unpack that event because I think that fortell.

Yeah. Certainly obviously the consil general of Osaka, the ambassador, his council uh who who actually made that tweet was probably doing it for his masters in China Beijing. Yeah.

So shows that yeah my I'm the brave guy. that wolf warrior kind of diplomacy which I think is already overdone. Uh and uh not not the way that should be. Uh it should also be noted that uh 48 hours after he tweeted that he deleted that tweet.

There was a lot of backlash. So I don't think Japan wants to do anything against him or uh remove him or kick him back, ask him to leave. I mean it just shows uh it reflects on him. uh for an ambassador who is supposed to be doing diplomacy to descend to that level to say things like this it really diminishes him. So it is a backlash on himself and at the same time Japan's uh um position on Taiwan is also clear because uh PM the new Japanese PM is saying that yeah any attack because the proximity the sheer proximity between Taiwan and Japan is so close

right so surely anything that affects the neighbors uh would affect to some extent and impact either the national security or whatever uh military balance that is in uh Japan or in that area uh the the the seas and u the seven fleet is also positioned very very very close there I mean the whole idea of the seven fleet being positioned there is already uh it underlines that there is a need for some kind of security in that region which is can be very unstable. So it can just spark off. So no no reason for for for Japan to uh to say you know uh it doesn't affect us. It does affect. So if

anything happens to a neighbor if anything happen to Singapore I'm sure it affects us in Malaysia. Right? So we cannot say that um because geopolitics is so interconnected. So that is where China is a bit too easily irritated and too prickly. This actually comes.

Why is that? Yeah. Why is that? You see, China has always talked about two things. Our century of humiliation where they undergo tremendous humiliation. And now we want

what are you referring what are they referring to when they talk about a century of humiliation I mean lighten for those who don't quite understand that part is that are we going back yeah wars in the history the opium war where they lost the war they have to give away Hong Kong and uh how the colonial masters control Shanghai Beijing eventually uh they were like carving out their own territories the the colonization or occupation of China at one time by the powers, six powers or how many powers there, right? And then after that there was the um the world

war where Japan went in and uh the great the massacre and rape of Nank King. That was something that really affected a lot of Chinese people even up to today. They keep talking about it and they make movies about it,

right? And u it's like how how how the Jewish people keep talking about the holocaust. Ah the holocaust and uh you know and at the same time there is one thing that they will always say that oh Japan is always very provocative when the prime minister will visit the uh Yasukuni shrine that that is the war memorial shrine in uh in Japan. The last prime minister sitting there. What else are you expecting him to do? I mean, irrespective of whether you are um I mean you've got to basically uh honor your veterans

regardless regardless whether you think that they are on the wrong side or the right side of the war. You know, you got to visit your veterans memorial. Yeah. This this is a memorial for those who died in the war.

Yeah. Right. Of course, people always conveniently forget that there were 2.5 million Japanese who died in the war and that memorial was basically erected to remember them

and out of the 2.5 million there were 14 war criminals uh that was prosecuted at the international war tribunal war crime post the surrender of Japan uh after World War II and they were also buried there. Right? But the fact is that this is a memorial to remember those who died. Japanese people I mean every country has

a memorials. Uh Pearl Harbor, China probably has theirs, US has theirs and and uh Australia has their own. So nobody takes issue with that. Why take you and I think it's also unfair because this is also a shrine a kind of a temple where uh the religious belief of the Shinto religion

right it believes that this is a form of a purification process I see in their religion so if they go and offer put offerings there and they pray there uh this is to pray for all those dead to purify you know I mean they may have been very violent and committ committed a lot of sins during lifetime but we pray that their sins will now be lessened and what this part of the religion it's a very cultural thing

right but China has decided to look at things in a very I think they politicizing it to stir up the anti-Japanese sentiment in China I guess you know what you have actually brought up a very interesting point

which is I never thought about it that way because if you think about it right My thoughts has always been why is it so con so uh the Muslim countries uh are very up in arms with Palestine but not up in arms with the genocide in Sudan for example. Okay. because it serves their purpose as political leaders to push the attention away to what they conveniently see

u as their natural enemy that they have been indoctrinated with which is the Jewish nation. Yes. Right. So I think it's you're right. I never thought about it that way because you know what you're right. You you know what I mean look at the Japanese people. Okay. Uh sometimes you just like they are so docile, right? You know, like it's it's really a joke. My sister actually studied in Japan.

Uh yeah. Yeah. She she's retired now. She was a she was a teacher of Japanese language. She was in Heimei, right? So um I I I visited her and I stayed quite long as well and she always tells me this story. Yeah, that's it. The thing with their culture also is they are very top down.

Yes. You know, and therefore I mean just like what happened in in in in Nazi Germany, right? Your top leader can get your people to do atrocities or your soldiers to do the atrocities. It is not uh it is not Japanese. It is not German. every society and if we go back to even in China I mean China was not a unified country

exactly right right so how did this got unified we don't have the record of the atrocities of the conquering what han uh clan okay uh you know to unify the country right we just don't have and it's so long ago in history we don't hear of whatever that has happened during that period.

So that's that's that's that's a good point. Yeah. China also see they do this because that's that's the way for the communist party to secure its position and saying that that's it. Uh I mean if you have got domestic trouble u China's economy is not that great. There are a lot of challenges. Uh I think succession also is an issue. So when you have a lot of domestic issues the easiest thing for a politician of that country is to point to an outward outside enemy a foreign enemy and conveniently Japan you know so that's where everybody focus on Japan Japan is the bad guy so everything on

them so people technically okay forget the the local problem so this is exactly what the communist party is doing so they are politicizing it and the worst thing is that I mean if you really want to be honest about Has there been a correct is there even a uh their own reckoning of their own political leaders in the past? For example, Mauto

Mousong Mousut himself uh was instrumental in causing tens of millions to die in that long march in the hunger march die of hunger. Yeah. So much so there are actually official records that said uh he was 70% correct but he was 30% at four. So

that's the official record. That's the official 30%. That means okay so if you are at fault for 30%. How many people died in the long march? The figures vary from 10 to 40 million. Huge.

So let's take let's take let's take 3 million then. Yeah. Still right for any civilization or any country who has a political leader that has actually caused the death of so many people there must be some

reckoning moral reckoning and know is there be has there been an inquiry has there been a national inquiry and trying to find out what actually happened uh and then okay accountability you see you look at Japan Japan there's accountability they lost the war

they were subject to international tribunal. Uh uh they had to surrender. Uh they had their constitution changed and amended. Demilitarized constitution.

The constitution itself is pacifist. Yes. So you see I mean who dictates their constitution? These are the foreign powers the winners of the war and tell Japan that you shall no longer have uh an offensive army. Your army. Can you imagine how humiliating that is actually if you think about it from a national from national standpoint which country would subject themselves to that

but they did. So for a long time even up to now uh the the constitution cannot be amended is is is like that. This this is my my my I mean sorry I'm going to digress a short one right this is my biggest problem with the whole uh the the whole Palestinian pro issue. Okay, you lost the war uh uh the uh and and all your countries are partitioned in the Middle East and and and North Africa, right? That was under pal that there was not even a Palestine uh in essence actually to be to be if everybody were to really understand history there no Palestinian people. They were they were in essence people

who who who were living in J Jordan and and and Egypt of what it was as part and then there's the British mandate, right? And it's called Palestine uh the Brit the the British Palestine accept it but you go to war, you lose it, right? and you still don't want to. I I just saw uh a news report yesterday that Hamas is refusing to disarm, right? So, you are just asking for it again, right? When are you going to stop your war? Right? So, we go back to your story. I'm dig I digress. I just want to make this point, right? But I mean the the the point that you're making I think there's

been no reckoning in China whereas there's been reckoning in Japan, no reckoning in UK too. What has the British done about their centuries of colonization?

Uh you think they didn't abuse all those colonies? Yeah. Ours included, India included, Myanmar and so many other colonies all over the world. uh taken all the the their jewels and now they are all part of the crown jewels. I I you know so we go back to this situation in in in in China and and and Japan the fact that Japan I think it's very interesting that Japan is willing as we said if you if you call this regional polar now that has been talked about as shifting to China all of a sudden you've got Japan coming up and and and and making up its own mind

and saying look I'm going to stand by Taiwan effectively Right. You know, and to me, I've always said this, Taiwan is almost like Ukraine. Yeah. Right. What Ukraine is to Russia, Taiwan is to China. Okay. There's no per you can't say Dave, you you want to say uh that's your territory. Okay. Go to war, right? And I don't think that's going to happen. And I I I do believe that had Trump won, there would have been no further war in Ukraine. That's for sure. I'm very confident about that because why? Um I don't think Putin would dare.

Yeah. Right. Yes. Yeah. So right right now um when we look at it, you you mentioned China. So let's go back to to China then, right? So they have their own internal problems and I've been reading back again and trying to update myself on uh what is happening. So so Zin Ping actually uh survived the fourth planner. They've been because they were talk about him not surviving or actually losing uh certain positions. My theory actually is that because of all the tariff talks, because of Apac and all that, actually he survived more because of Trump because China cannot lose face.

Yes. Uh what do you think? And the factions that are against him also are quite circumspect and very careful because they do not want to be seen as initiating a coup.

Yeah. against their own lead. It's really not the CCP way. That's not their way. Yeah. Right. And they don't want to be responsible and say that you are the one that you know pull down topple a leader in that kind of outward way. So things are done in a very uh always uh try to do it below the radar

right and if you read the things that actually happen I I have read one news report this is from the Chinese media because the the entire fourth plenum mhm was not open to media

okay that mean it's a closed door meeting with several hundred is that odd or is that is that usual it has always been that practice because this is internal discussion. Okay. But when you have several hundred leaders, some of those people who attended that would definitely say something what happened. People will be very curious. And uh there apparently enough uh people the leaders who said actually it started off with a self-reflection and selfexamination uh session for all the leaders including Siinping. So siinping because this is the communist way right. So all the

leaders must must write all the things that you have reflected your mistakes and all that you have examined yourself and that's how you want to improve. You have to read it out. It can be quite embarrassing because here you are owning some of your mistakes and confessing to it and say I I did this wrong or did that wrong. Uh it's part of that process. Yeah. It's also interesting thought. Uh Mut never did that.

Well he died. he died right or even when he was alive you know he didn't do it there was noise in fact tengiaing opposed his policies because he was making all kinds of wrong policies on agriculture but of course he got away with it so Cinping actually did that and many other leaders also did did the same thing but there was one important uh development that um many people may not have noticed is that the CMC the uh China military commission where Ci Jinping is the chairman. Um then uh General Chang is the uh VP vice chairman

and there was a vacancy because uh General uh Huong was sacked uh earlier on. So he was was he sacked as part of the nine? Yes. Yes. He was one of the nine that was so very very high and Herbong was always seen as Cinping's man

and he was removed allegedly for corruption in China. Every leader that has been removed it is always for allegedly corruption. Very convenient term I know right and there was a replacement.

Okay. So, General Jang Bing has been appointed as the replacement, the second uh deputy uh uh chairman, right? And both are also changing. There has been rumors that they are actually related.

Okay. And uh this guy who has been replaced now has got actually very wide powers because he's now in charge of discipline. He's in charge of investigation. He's in charge of enforcement and he's also in charge of personnel management.

Oh, that's powerful. Personnel management. Very powerful. Yeah. Right. And that's HR. Yeah. HR. Right. And uh why suddenly he's in charge of personnel management when by right it should be Cingping. Uh so that means there has been a little bit of an if you read between the lines there appears to be an erosion of powers of Cingping's powers. His wings has been clipped. He's still chairman perhaps nominal. And uh uh the the the rumors is that Changan Ming was actually appointed by the number two Changia who appointed him. So which means at the military commission now Cinping is outnumbered

because the his two deputies are actually not his own people. Right. In fact the nine generals that was removed were all CG's people. Yeah. His loyalists were all removed. I mean the the it took a while for the state media to actually acknowledge the removal

and actually say that the removal was Etsy Jin Ping's uh uh instructions but it took them a while you know I I don't think so I mean this is the part about you remember I mean you remember when we used to say Malay politics you know is Kool right

this is the Chinese version of Kool you know you got to read between the tea leaves you Yeah, because the the princlings that were earlier on ousted Baoilai uh those who were aligned to uh uh Changuming the former president or even uh uh Bunja Pao uh their back uh because they are now also uh trying these are the party elders.

Yeah. Uh those who had to give up their presidency because of term limits two terms. Yeah. But when it came to si Jinping, he amended. He he abolished the two-term limit. Yeah. He abolished it and he's now installed there's no term limit.

Yeah. So I mean how would these people feel right? The former president and say hey we we had term limit and we could have stayed could have done the same thing but so there is a lot of internal dissatisfaction. Uh so it's just a matter of time. So of course uh there will not be a sudden shift. Uh the transition will be fairly gradual. It may happen after the 21st party congress which is in 2027.

Yeah 2027. So we got about another year and a half between that's what 20 20th party congress or something like that right yeah the 20th was in 2022. They have a party congress 5 years once every 5 years. Usually after the party congress there will be some movement in terms of changes in and the plenum uh is somewhere in between that's why this year 2025 is the fourth platinum and that is where some movement already started

so I think they are already in that that transition and uh as we can see also the the rise of the former princlings u Starbucks sold 40% of his stake in China.

Uh to who? The grandson of uh Janguing. Oh, that's something that's interesting. Yeah. So, who are amongst those which were associated with Bilai uh the alleged corruption people? I mean the group of princlings are those people whose father were related to the earlier leadership and all the way maybe even to Mao right so including Xi Jinping's father was also with Mao and all that so there was a fight among all the princing so Jinping took the opportunity to remove all his competitors

right so many of them so if we just quick one right so if you talk about the factions within the CCP so we got the princelings faction which are all the the blue blood so to speak of the party

and then you've got basically the party elders as another faction right those who were in power previously they still hold soal influence because of where they were before but because of the term limit they they stepped down but they are very influential

and then the third faction is what the military or what what what is the yes the military faction which is Janguia right right which is a a real direct direct competitor.

Yes. To Zip Bang. Yes. You know, and he has taken full control, I would think. Yes. If you really ask me, you know, I mean, uh, of of the military. Yes. you know, it's so I it's going to be a very interesting situation because uh this is the problem I felt China have and I think a lot of our at least our Malaysian audience, right, don't realize it uh about China and its direction after um uh Zining consolidated his power because they were really in a real strong trajectory. Um when is it Jang Jin uh was doing his reforms um Tanamin Square if you ask me happened.

Yes. Because of the relaxation of freedom, right? And the problem always with having more freedom is you're going to have some chaos. Definitely. Okay. And that was taken advantage of

and and that pushed him aside out and Jin Ping took power. They thought he was a safe bet. He was a safe guy to you know they didn't realize he had more ambition than that

you know and this is it's always is after you got decades of the of being in power the problem is always single party is corruption. Yeah. Right. That's uh I mean even without single party we got corruption

right and uh the other thing with the economic policies then it becomes one man and everybody is going to tell you you are great. Yeah. you know, and I think that's their root cause of where they are and the wolf warrior diplomacy that you mentioned just now,

you know, because the hubris of of of of staying in power for that long and that's I think I think is what we in Asia uh need the counterbalance,

right? You know, so we go back to I mean now now we talk about the counterbalance, right? I uh was making a mention that I think America after they have not even sent a new ambassador in into Kalumpo.

Uh Congress needs to confirm. The name is there but uh I think they need to go through confirmation process. Yeah, it will take it will take a while. I think they are too preoccupied with the shutdown. Congress is not meeting.

I think Singapore has just got their their new ambassador. Yeah, I think in due course. Yeah. So, I mean the the there must be a a balancing act going, you know, as a follow up to Trump's visit,

you know, that uh then because let's talk about this then because uh I think one of the things that that people don't realize and I think the the m presence of the uh the the Pacific the fleet the the the the US uh navy fleet

right has actually been uh good for the world. Yes. In terms of trade protecting mer uh protecting uh uh shipping lines that has been a has been a very big um allocation of capital.

Yeah. from a superpower so to speak, right? To be the policeman of the world. You know, people don't realize just how much that uh that that allocation of capital has actually benefited global trade that has benefited everybody in the world.

Yeah. Yeah. Because you you look at the uh the Red Sea now is okay. uh gone are the days where the Yemenes or the Houthis were were just launching all kind of bombs and all that but they have been more or less

piracy been taken care of piracy no more uh straight of Homos is not closed despite all the Iranian threats uh so it will remain open uh straight of ma definitely even South China Sea uh the US carrier group uh the limits uh is already coming in to uh patrol the waters And uh of course we have the on the other side uh USS Gerard Ford just arrived near Venezuela.

That's going to be an interesting development. That will be another interesting development. So, so in that sense, so if you're talking about freedom of navigation, um security of uh sea lanes and shipping lanes, it's good for the world because now you cannot simply disrupt the world by blocking sea lanes and causing all kind of uh you know threats to the ships and all that. So this is one good thing that the US has has done uh asserting its power and u making sure that everything is okay and uh the world trade goes on. China benefits from this actually.

True. Absolutely right. So I think what 70% of the shipping is from them. Yeah. Is theirs. Yes. They're riding on this particular protection. Yes. So you know so what is there for them to complain you know and then of course they will say oh South China see this and that but when it benefits them they don't they don't acknowledge it so this is this is the problem right

I I think I'm more comfortable with uh with the China equation I mean uh when they had the term limit for the presidency because it keep them keep keep the the uh at least there is a check and balance Yes.

You know, um I mean we never saw uh the type of presence that we see in the South China Sea by the uh China Navy against you know I mean uh encroaching into uh Filipino

even uh Malaysian uh territorial waters you know and and them claiming it in such blatant terms. I I think people need to realize this part because this is the concern that we all should have, you know, uh because the I keep telling my Chinese friends actually, you know, the China the China leadership or the chi the Chinese in China are not our Malaysian or Singaporean Chinese.

They are very different from us. They are very different. Yeah, they they already very different from the Taiwanese. The Taiwanese actually, if you ask me, has evolved to a certain civilization where they no longer, you know, there used to be a time when they were throwing uh uh and and and punching each other in parliament, right? That's no longer the case. They have adapted to democracy. That's right.

Properly. So you it's a very different It's a very different China in Taiwan. Yes. you know, so we got to accept the fact that that's a different country. The same way we say Malaysia is a different country with a huge population of Chinese, uh, ethnic Chinese, uh, Singapore is a different country with a huge population. We are not part of China.

No, we are not and we don't want to be. Our mindset is so different. Uh, Chinese Malaysians are very different from Chinese from China. China. You see the whole mindset of China, they keep playing up like I mentioned earlier on the century of humiliation. We were humiliated. Now we are now building up and we are rejuvenated.

What is the third step implicit in that? Why are you talking about the humiliation? And now you're saying we are now asserting oursel. The third step that is not stated is that we'll take revenge.

This is where the problem is. M if you start any diplomacy or any relationship with humiliation now I'm strengthened now after that what else so if you keep hopping on the fact that oh my greatgrandfather your great-grandfather killed my great-grandmother and that is not never going to end

you know the funny thing you're right you know the 10 thing is that we don't think in that terms we don't right nobody thinks in that terms here. Malaysia's we were subject to Japanese occupation. Uh our many of our relatives were killed by the Japanese. We don't have atrocities.

Yeah. Atrocities. There were many. Right. We don't have issues with that. Yeah. Right. I mean it's it's it's done. That's that's that's history, right? We have closure, right? And they say that's it. In the past is pass. Now we are friends and we do trade.

Yeah. That's how our relationship with Japan today. Look at Japan, Malaysia relationship. The trade incredible. Well, I mean, America, Japan, hold on to grudges. Yeah. America, Japan,

like the Arabs. Exactly. So, America, Japan relationship is at all time high today. I mean, do the Americans and Trump keep saying that, oh, I cannot forget Pearl Harbor. Yeah.

No. Finish. They have moved on. Yeah. Right. Uh what what what about Americans can keep hopping on the fact that oh is is the English that have occupied us uh we ran away from them and yet they came over and then they tried to conquer us again. We were in we fought uh the Anglo American war. I mean there will be no end no end to it.

No end to that. So if you keep talking about the century of humiliation for what? Yeah. So just live with it closure and then move on. You know that is one that that that gives me also a very interesting part about my observation about um uh the Jewish uh experience right if you look at the Jewish experience what do they say about it they don't talk about humiliation you know when they talk about the Holocaust they talk about never again

right not to forget and never again right so it's not about it it was not a humiliation it was to actually ensure that they are always protected

they are you know they have so it's a different mindset yeah you know so when you look at what happened in the Middle East for example I can understand how how how they are going to protect their territory

okay so right so uh I think it's a good jumping point at this point because you mentioned Venezuela and I want to I I I I I I I want to go there for a while and and shift away from Asia, right? Because really I think what Trump has established

is um for lack of better word the hedgeimonyy of the uniolarness uh in terms of the spectrum of American power, right? Um I see it very differently how he's projecting that power with respect to their backyard or even their sphere of influence so to speak. Trump is not the neocon mindset of changing regimes actually but he will go you know and to do things that will protect America's interest in terms of and I don't blame him in one sense right because I think people are talking about the vene Venezuelan oil and all that they don't need that anymore America

is the biggest producer of oil and gas in the world today they have more than they can even consume, right? Venezuela's uh oil and gas infrastructure is dilapidated.

Yeah. You know, but the problem has always been in the in that part of the country including Colombia and whatn not is basically the drug cartels.

The drugs. Yeah. It's like a it it's like guerilla warfare. Yes. And they have t almost taken over governments if you ask me. I mean money. We're talking about we're talking about billion dollar trade. Yeah.

A government. Yeah. What what do what what do you see happening? I mean how do you see what's going to happen in Venezuela and especially Venezuela? Why not what you know why why Venezuela?

Oh Venezuela is a huge why not Colombia? Can you please enlighten us? I think Colombia might also be part of the the equation because they're all connected the different different drug cartels

and they smuggling in even Mexico right going through Mexico and uh that that is why it is so important for Trump to do the first thing to build a wall and to make sure no more illegals coming in uh to stop the drug. So now the drug flows are coming in via the seas, right? And it's quite incredible to actually read about drugs being smuggled through submarines.

Fantastic, isn't it? That's how rich you can be. Yeah. Yeah. Can you imagine? So the drug traffickers are at that level. They can even own submarines. So that means are they being funded by the state or or what? So that is where sometimes uh

I think they're richer than the state. Yeah. So that is why it it it blurs. Uh and then of course uh China will always say that we are not involved but they supply uh the chemicals the precursors uh to to make all those uh drugs. So America of course Trump wants to protect his own people and uh cut off all this. That's why all these attacks on all the drug smuggling boats and all that and at the end of the day putting aside the oil uh issue if the leader of that country uh Maduro the president refuses to take action against uh all the drug lords and all that then he just have to go.

So that is why it's a bit complicated. People see oh that's regime change but regime change to solve a different problem the drug problem. So recently there was uh a little bit of a seems to be a shift in opinion. Uh everything the the the military has been all positioned well positioned. Uh Gerard for aircraft carriers uh strikes forces already there. So it's all building up to something very big. But then suddenly Trump was reported to say he has second thoughts. Uh there was a resolution that was tabled in the Senate to stop the declaration of war uh invasion of uh Venezuela. I think Trump

softened a bit partly. I think he wanted to make sure that uh the resolution does not pass. Uh so it failed. So he won by 5149. Very close. Oh really? Yes. Oh, I didn't I missed that particular news. So if Senate had passed the law,

okay, that means the president's arms will be again shackled by that. So he got that through and I think also he didn't want to be seen as such a wararmonger uh because the shutdown uh vote was more important. So I think so he kind of softened everything and say yeah no I'm I'm reconsidering the strike and all that. So nothing uh and then he got the shutdown vote through. So the filibuster was broken 6040. So he got those votes. So therefore the beginning of the reopening of America government. So these are the things that he has done. Uh but that was last week.

Yeah. Right. So this week things can change change very fast. Uh anytime he can do a strike but looking at the way he is uh operating uh I think the CIA has also already came out and say that they are already in there. M

that means special forces or maybe non-military forces are already there. Trump's philosophy will not be sending American boots on the ground. Basically American soldiers to be on the ground but I believe the normal official soldiers may not be sent in. But there is always the possibility of sending in the private military

contractors contractors. So these people are private. Technically they are not considered soldiers. They are military contractors. You pay me, we go in and we do our own thing, right? As good as soldiers. So I I believe that can be be done. So if at all any of those bodies body bag come home, it's not American soldiers body bag. these are military contractors. So that might just happen. Uh so

I I did I I I totally did not uh count that particular angle. Okay. Yeah. Same same like Iran. I think if at all they do an actual invasion uh mele contracting um the private mil contractors are are having a very good business nowadays. You can contract it out. So these are the people who are mercenaries. Uh just pay them and get it done.

That's a different side of war, isn't it? Yes. Different. They don't need to wear American uniform or American flag. It doesn't reflect on them. Yeah. And the whatever the actions you can disavow,

right? Sounds like mission impossible. Right. So that's that's uh so that's a a new angle. So I I believe it's just a matter of time. Uh it's not whether or not he will go but just a matter of time when Maduro will have to go. I also hear rumors that he is actually negotiating for an safe exit. So uh he wants the bounty of 50 million to be removed from his head because he has got

he's got a 50 million bounty. You want to go go anywhere you know you try to go to Saudi Arabia somebody will just behead you take 50 million not safe to go anywhere you want to go to exile right so he needs that to be removed then he needs uh safe passage to a country or place of his choice where he can live uh safely in exile and u thirdly uh he wants his own timeline that means not immediately He just

I don't think he'll get that one. He he became president in last year. Venezuela election is 6 years once. Uh so from what I heard he wanted 3 years. So he say two to three years from now.

Uh I don't think Trump I don't think he will get that will give that kind two three years too long. Uh so he might get some months or what. So these are things being negotiated at the end. So the moment he gets this uh then he will just go right and Trump being Trump always transactional and negotiating this is his ball game.

Yeah. Okay. I mean if Trump is able to achieve this, I mean a lot of credit will go to him because if you can engineer a change of government or whatever, remove the drug problem from uh threatening America without sacrificing lives.

Well, that's a major achievement. Yeah. Right. So this is what what is happening. So I think uh matter of time before we before we we we will see. So

that's a very interesting angle because um I think the drug cartels has been operating for a I mean I think the problem with the Democrat administration is the soft on crime policies that they have

right uh they are trying to c uh the so-called minority votes and and whatnot right and they I don't understand it but then again that's politics I guess right so the other effect of that and also the lack immigration is uh it just play into the hands of the drug drug cartels you know um so but okay so I I mean we framed the situation in ter in terms of uh uh the uniolarity returning uh with the leadership uh that is being provided from the American side I think quite well we got Asia we've seen what's happening in in the Middle East. I think it's undeniable, right?

And I think um uh South America, we're going to see that happening. I mean, we've seen how he's kept Argentina afloat. You know, it's very interesting. I I you know it it doesn't seem to sit well with the America first crowd but they don't I I I kept telling my American friends this uh it's yeah your America first must understand how did you get to be first you know you get to be first because of what you are doing in all these areas you know so that's the other part that actually they you know they they've gone they they need to recalibrate.

You know, Scott Besson made a very interesting remark, right, about Argentina yesterday. I I didn't I didn't catch it. People I mean, as usual, legacy media, CNN will tell him, "Oh, this is another bail out. You know, you you're putting so much money Argentina because he's your friend and all that. So, it's waste of taxpayers money." Scott Bessen told them, "Do you even understand what is a swap line? We bought uh we lend to Argentina but the Argentinian currency after the re-election and and victory of again landslike

uh the currency has actually appreciated by 20%. So it's not a bailout. All bailout means the country who provide the money will lose the money. Uh but here we provided the money but we have just made a profit of 20%. So one bill are you talking about right? So here we are. So this is uh

that's a businessman way of doing things. Yes businessman. So they knew so it less they look at it as an investment. I put so much money there but I know the money is going to come back. So now Argentina is well rebuilding and a lot of a positive outlook in Argentina. Why is he so sure? When was he elected? I mean Malay I mean uh why did he have I thought he was not that long ago. Uh was it that long ago?

I think that the the system might be a bit different. There is a I think this was the could be the parliamentary election where his party won. Ah okay. So it's not the presidential

election but it's enough to secure that means he has got a very strong position strong majority in this correct in parliament. Okay. Yeah. In parliament. So that means it actually reinforce and reaffirm his position and his popularity. This this is even a better uh message. Oh, it's that's exactly my thought when I when I was speaking about uh the midterms and uh for for uh for Trump because I think that um whatever the economic measures that he has taken um he's got no second term anymore, right? Okay. Uh let's be frank in no matter what Steve Bannon want to say. Okay. Um

and uh the only way his policies are going to continue is for his successor to be able to be president and the only way that's going to happen is if he delivers on all the economic fronts if you ask me that's b and it has to be it has to be delivered

you know in my opinion I mean ideally and as and and I think it's the best way before the midterm. so that he doesn't lose both houses of uh uh either one. I mean, I think the Senate is pretty safe. Is the House that's probably going to be a bit more uh challenging uh because you want the agenda to flow through.

Yeah. Right. So, um my thought are always like you know like any business we do uh once you you say okay I'm going to implement this project. All right. capital allocation, draw down, implementation and then seeing construction being set up to for the project and people getting hired. It's going to take you about 12 months, you know, at least

12 to 16 months. Yes. Right. So then only you'll start looking at improvement in terms of uh uh hirings in terms of all these investments that are that that that that are going to come in. So, you know, midterm is next November.

Yeah. Yeah. I think, you know, the campaigning is probably I mean, you you he's got to get results. Inflation especially uh and bring because when you talk about inflation, it was very high when Biden when he took over from Biden. So if inflation is is already at that part and you've got even though he's got inflation down uh in terms of growth inflation inflation rate it is still higher than what it was

before he left his first term. Yeah. Right. So it's about bringing the cost down. It's very different you know. So that's the challenge I see in terms of uh this president uh for next year or the first half of next year state of the union when

true January. Yeah. I also had an interesting conversation with one uh not from US some guy uh who was who just made a remark he said that Trump actually can have a third term inverted com. So I said, "How?" He said, "There's nothing in the law to prevent him from standing as we vice president."

I don't think I know that's been that's been floated that's been floated before. Okay. You know, fans can be president and Trump, but I I don't I doubt it. I seriously doubt that he would do that. I seriously doubt it. I I don't think it will sit well with the American electorate regardless.

I I don't think that's a good strategy. There's no need for him to do that actually. Yeah. Uh so but uh uh Vance has to really uh uh do a lot of learning in this time when he's VP so that he can gain that kind of stature uh so that he can actually be seen as the actual successor for Trump uh in 2028. I mean I've been observing actually how uh you know when when you've managed uh big uh organizations uh you sort of notice a few things you know and I I I made a remark uh before that I find it very interesting how uh he has been utilizing vans in everything.

It is almost a mentorship. Yes. So I you know it's it's basically that I I could see it that's how a CEO mentors a COO you know to take over from him when he steps down.

But what I don't uh but what what I think the challenge will be is uh um is to deliver the results before the time for you to start going for election. Right? It has to deliver the fantastic results that they promised.

If they don't because it's been a lot of chaos what he has done. True. Right. And uh anybody in business who has done restructuring knows that you know it's all chaotic.

It's it has to be because you want the result fast and you've got to you uh you got to do the way DRA is doing. You you ask me that's what I I would do if I was uh even the prime minister of Malaysia. That's what I would do cuz uh you know you need to turn around the country

right so I think um maybe um to close out uh this discussion uh Jason how do you see uh moving forward uh how how how does he consolidate uh the remaining part especially in Asia, right? In terms of American influence, because I think that um we don't realize in in Asia because we we've got such a uh Chinese ccentric community um and maybe to a certain extent anti-western mentality.

Yeah. That we don't realize all the gains that we have had. It's like do it's like these people who made so much He is like uh people who are who are wellfed you know doesn't realize how actually their parents has worked very hard to make sure that they have the wealth that they have you know and they get uh you know they want to get out of the parents shadows so to speak you know so I feel that we don't really realize how the world changed after World War II and why from that the evolution of of Of course, America is not perfect.

Yeah. No country is, no leadership is, but if you ask me, that's the best we got uh from human civilization so far as I can see. So, how do you see especially their positioning? what they need to do with respect to uh I mean as uh with respect to Asia and consolidate this is a big growth

growth growth uh I mean right where the growth is going to be yeah we have about 600 Southeast Asia we got about 680 million population right um and and and we really the growth the the industrialized industry iousness of the people.

Yeah. Is despite our resources, we have very little oil. Let's put it this way. 700,000 barrel or less than that now per day is nothing.

Nothing, right? But uh for example, for us, okay? Uh and oil is not really going to be that much lucrative uh anymore, you know, moving forward. Um so what do you think? What is there? what needs to be done here in terms of uh uh uh the American influence within the Asia Pacific area.

It may even go back to the discussion we had on the uniolar world. uh we may not exactly uh agree on the what is a uniolar world but for me I see Trump has actually recalibrated the uniolar world a bit because now he has put some strength and power into it which includes actually the military power is very important right so in this part of the world I mean you have seen uh defense secretary or now we call him secretary of war.

Yeah. Pet hex. He was here just after Trump. So he was and he stayed longer. Yes. He stayed longer because he had a lot of uh engagement and meetings with the Southeast Asian ASEAN countries uh the defense ministers the generals and all that. uh and that's important because that engagement because he needs to send out that message that uh Southeast Asia South China Sea is important right it's important in the sense that do not let others people bully you in Southeast Asia and South China Sea so if you are going to be bullied America will stand there for you

so it it's a slightly different message because many of the countries who are having uh dispute or claimment states uh on South China Sea against China have a lot of issues with China and as you know China will from time to time do their own incursion at their leisure and there's very little that we can do

uh so if they want to fly 26 jets across our airspace what are we going to do what can we do yeah right uh so stuff like that uh Philippines is getting the brunt of it because they are getting water cannons uh this and that and we are think some think tankers from China and say that you should be lucky that we are using water cannon.

Yeah, they that kind of mindset people here doesn't seem to recognize the mindset that is coming out of that. I mean from water cannon to rail cannon is just very small step.

Yeah. And it's very dangerous. So that is why unintended consequences or incidents encounters at sea in the South China Sea can easily spark and we have seen so many of these already sparked in the Philippines and everywhere else. So it is reassuring for us especially uh secretary Petite to come and say look no we will provide that kind of security because uh the security for South China Sea it is for the prosperity of all. So that is good reassurance and not only that he has actually begin to put actual uh military assets here. Uh there was a donation of two vessels by

us two Malaysia actually uh to to help. Really? Yeah, there was uh but I think we didn't want to play it out very much. That was uh Yeah, I I I didn't even hear that news uh post post Trump uh visit.

Really? Yeah. One of those things. I think maybe it could be one of those things that Malaysian smart enough to ask uh after all we did so much for you. So you make a small tidy request. I mean no issue a couple of ship. Okay.

Yeah. They probably can let go about a 30 old ship for us. Yeah. Yeah. What is it for them? It's a good sign, right? Uh and uh I think also uh Secretary uh Pet Hexac has also begin to revamp the military assets of America. I mean of course many people say, "Oh, you're far behind China. Where is your hypersonic and everything else?" So, America is now beginning to put all that and then the the aircraft carrier, China is now parading their third carrier, the Fujen. But people seem to fail to realize that the three aircraft carriers that China own, one is the Leoning, which is an

ancient antique carrier from Ukraine, I think, or the one bought from all the three the Shanong and then the full jet. All three are diesel powered. None of them is nuclear powered.

So which means they have not been able to build a nuclearpowered carrier. Whereas US carriers are all nuclear. All nuclear power. Yeah. That means you don't need refueling.

So So you really talk of the technical gap. Technical gap is quite a bit. Yeah. Uh and if you're talking about space, many people have also forgotten that who put the first man on moon 1969. Neil Armstrong US

who else has done it? India. Have they put a ban on? No. No. They just uh uh uh planning China for all their great advances and technology and everything has not has not yet put a man on the moon and their first planned mission for man on the moon for China is 2030.

So can you see the gap? The gap is huge actually. I mean if China can do put it put a man on the moon tomorrow they would have done it. Yeah. Right. So they are not able to right. And in terms of satellites who is having this great advantage in terms of number of satellites that have be up there

thanks to Elon Musk. Oh god. Yeah. Talk about he's shooting like has easily the starling network is easily about 10,000 satellites all over. Yeah. Low orbit. Uh and China despite all the 6G 7G that they talk about they have only something like about close to 800 satellites out there.

That's a mad genius that Elon Musk I tell you something he make a perfect uh stab bl I mean you have one Elon Mus is such a great asset to the country. So he is actually uh governizing NASA and everything else. Uh and let's not be naive that Starling is totally civilian.

Any satellite, any instrument can be have a dual use. Y it can be militarized any time. Right. And he's smart enough to know. He knows.

Yeah. And if you read the record on uh NASA and the FCC or the approval for number of satellites to be has been approved for Alona Starling for the next 5 years is 42,000.

Wow. So this is the number of satellites that is going to put up there and this will be third generation fourth generation satellites with AI and everything else. So in that sense Malays uh US is far far ahead in terms of the space. So which means that America is investing in the right thing

spending money uh doing things like that. So very much that will help retain their position of leadership or hgeimonyy in the world. uh and uh even even even about the dollar uh there have been too much talk about ddollarization blah blah blah uh people forget let me put these facts very clearly so that

it's close in depth yeah our people will know what are the facts right because everybody will quote China oh China has reduced the US currency uh treasury holdings from one over trillion now it's only about 700 00 billion

m 750 billion. Therefore, the dollarization uh has started. It's the end of the dollar whatever there is custodial services called Eurocar and um clear stream.

Mhm. Eurok in Belgium, Clear Stream in London. These are specialized custodial services who actually buy treasuries anywhere in the world. Most of them US treasuries. This is private institutions. And because they are private, there is no need for them to declare who are their clients,

right? But from the reading of it, if you look at the one holding the lot of currencies in the world today actually is Belgium and Luxenburg. M I mean where does Belgium and Luxenburg got the kind of money to hold to hold all these trillions? Don't you you you know what I suspect I'm just going to jump in and just say this right probably private Chinese citizen Chinese government Chinese individuals so if you look at that that reserves in US treasuries being traded as custodial services they're holding as custodian uh in uh Luxembourg and in Belgium uh close to to

about another 600 billion. So that is like undisclosed. That that that that sounds like uh the the the the depository of uh uh of reserves for whoever wants to pass it on to somewhere else.

Yeah. Because because they are like a trust a sponge. Yeah. So they don't reveal they are not subject to all this. Uh you don't even know what's in that sponge. Yeah. In fact, Russia had something like 200 billion there.

Oh yeah. But unfortunately because Russia was involved in the Ukraine war, there was some sanctions they were forced to reveal. Uh and uh there's a big jack of 200 billion US dollars that belongs to Russia either by the Russian oligarchs or some Russian companies who actually hike them the money there. So, China hiked the money there and also Hong Kong uh is also another big uh what do you call that u depository of US dollars. Hong Kong global reserves forex reserves in under the Hong Kong monetary authority is 95% in US dollars US treasures.

Wow. Yeah. Uh that is another 500600 billion US dollars. So if you add all up you see every time they talk about the global uh reserves of China it comes out to about 3 trillion and then they say oh US currency held by China bank is only 700 billion how so where is why why the great discrepancy 3 trillion and then you have 700 billion and then you say h this is the dollarization no uh if you add up all the thing that is happening in Belgium and Hong Hong Kong and everywhere it comes out to close to about 2 trillion. That is the amount that China is actually holding. And China is also now

not only investing in US government treasury bills and bonds. They have gone into buying agency bonds meaning Fenny Mac uh Fenny May Freddy Mac all these semi-government agency which also issue bonds. So they also own that and then they also invested in corporate bonds which are US dollar denominated. I'm sure they have invested in Tesla. They have invested in Alon Mas companies and many other companies in the US. They have taken a stake. So all that is US dollars denominated.

So there cannot be any dilarization. Uh so this is where uh the the the picture that has been shown is that oh China has moved away and all that. No there's no way they can move away right if if you ask any China exporter today when they export things overseas they will ask you to pay in US dollars

right or especially as if they export to US will pay them in USD and they very happy with accepting American dollars. Do you think they will take the American dollars that they have and then change it all to Roman be? No, they will keep it.

Yeah. Right. This is what this is what business people understand actually if you ask me rather than listening to will want to change it to roaming B. Right. So despite all those you know they say oh we have crossbering B settlement those are very minor less than 5%.

You know 90% of transaction in the global market is in US dollar. Yeah. Even for oil I mean you are oil man most of those transactions are in US dollars right so who wants to pay for oil even Russian oil you Russia sometime also you know I don't want rubles I want US

why would I want ruble why would I want rubal you pay me in US dollar I don't have to bring it in yes this exactly what it is so the reality is that so

I think okay I I think on that point there has been this has been a great discuss To be honest, this conversation is great. Um, I hope everybody enjoys this. Thank you, Jason. Uh, we'll see you again. Uh, hope everybody uh get something out of this. Um, please, uh, like, subscribe, and so that you get another of these interesting episodes every time it drops. Thank you so much. See you all again.