Negeri Sembilan Prediction. On the Ground Review Before the Eve

So, yeah, I think that the next government is going to be a hybrid Barisan and PN government in Negeri Sembilan because the numbers are very small. Uh because the downside for for PAS and UMNO uh to me is less than for PH. And as I said, you don't need to win five seats, 10 seats. This is This is going to be a one seat.

going to be the the one a three-seat swing. What do you call it? Photo finish, yeah? Right. It's going to be a photo finish. That's what I see. With with the it's more towards condong line Malay. It's It's leaning towards uh

BN BN and the Perikatan boys. That's how I look at it. Yeah. I have a similar feeling listening to our uh when we you calling out from when your visit last night, our other team uh going down yesterday on the Chinese areas. Um that's the same feeling that we have and uh whether we see the turnout manifest itself. I the turnout many the turnout include people who are not voting, you know, which is the which is where the national issue is with respect to the non-Malays, especially the Chinese votes. Uh I think your your your crystal balling of a BN victory could be could come true, brother.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the Guy Shot Podcast. I'm Shamsul Sam. We are back again with Syed Akbar Ali. Good morning. Today, we have a special coverage for you um on the Negeri Sembilan election. And this is going to be a great barometer for national impact and what's coming up. Uh Syed, we had a I we had on-the-ground coverage this time, specially, you know, you were down in Linggi. Our friend in the from our own production team was down in Chenor and in Kuala Wang and some other areas as well. So, this is uh This is something that I really want to

talk about now before the the votes are casted tomorrow, 1st of August on Saturday with the 36 seats that are being vied for. Say it.

Yeah, I was in Negeri yesterday. Actually, I live quite close to Negeri, but yesterday we drove down to Linggi and Rembau and then back to Seremban and back home. Uh we observed the flag war. You know, so by the flag flag war you can see who's going to win, number counting number of flags. There was this this flag which my son also asked. You had a single star, lone star like Texas on a purple background. I don't know which party that is.

I thought that's MCA. No, no, no. It's not. No. Oh, boy. It's a maybe some Texan guy who escaped. Okay. Right? But anyway, um I I just want to make a quick observation. On the prospects for PH especially PKR. Um yeah, we will discuss this, but it it it um you know, after Johor after Johor, where PKR only won one seat, you know, and after Sabah I think uh the you know, this um this uh what I call it the fairy tale they started in 1998

Uh-huh. uh is coming to an end in Negeri Sembilan. This will be like the closing the closing uh The closing of the chapter or closing closing of the book. Looks looks like it. So, I have some views from what I observed and maybe we can discuss it more.

Um I think we got reports in by our team, yeah, including yours, right? Um there are a few very interesting fights there. Primarily, number one, we look at it with Chenor is an is an area of of interest where Anthony Loke is on a on a fight with MCA in Chenor. I think he's pulling all the stops down there. We will get to that later. I want to start out with actually some points in Kalawang where it's very much the the dynamics of what has happened with BN collaboration with PAS, right? Um what we are seeing is the basically a Malay fight Amanah by of Bakri Bakri Sawai who is very much

the local boy incumbent. And he has been He has actually, from what we hear from the ground, has been doing quite a lot of work and and over the years. So, he's got a solid start against Rais Yatim's you know, son, Danny of Perikatan, you know? So, what do you think of that? It's got That's a tough fight as well. The last time majority was 500.

I think if we go into the individual individuals who are contesting the polls well, if we can focus on individuals We don't have to, but this one I I find

are some there are some some hot seats and so Some parameters. The one I the one I think I mean the guy that you mentioned yeah, Rais' son and all that. Let's see what happens. But I think a lot of eyes are on our good friend secretary general of DAP

Yes. Anthony Loke in uh Chenor In Chenor. In Chenor, is it? In Chenor. So, that's a lot of there's a lot of focus on Anthony Loke's uh state seat. Um I think we need to go back a little bit of history here, huh? Because uh DAP did quite well in the last uh state elections, 2023. Negeri had their elections in 2023, yeah? Not 2022 uh because they didn't dissolve in 2022 during the general elections. So, they had their their state seat state elections in 2023. And um DAP did quite okay. They contested uh 11 seats, I think. DAP Yeah. And they actually they did quite

well, if I'm not mistaken, huh? Out of 11 seats, they won 11. 100%, you know? So, they did quite well. But, the atmosphere, the situation, the temperature, the flavors, everything has changed in the last uh you know, few years, you know? So, actually now

a half, maybe close to three years. Yeah, 2020 2020 less than three years, you know? Uh fortunes have changed. And the the latest results in Johor, and then before that in uh Sabah doesn't doesn't bode very well for PH, huh? I'm looking at the trend, huh?

Mhm. So, now in Negeri and feedback, and people are saying that Anthony going back to Anthony Loke in Chenor, people are saying he has a 50/50 chance of winning and and uh his whether he wins or loses will depend on the Chinese voter turnout, things like that, you know?

Yeah. Uh low turnout, he's going to suffer, things like that. And And that's the reason actually I brought up Kuala uh Kuala Lang to start off before we go to Chenor. Because why? I think the Malay vote coming out, and that's going to come out in Kuala Lang very well, which is the Malay votes are coming out as per usual, in my opinion. Uh and that's what our coverage team has been able to ascertain. But the Chinese vote Now we go to

Yeah. Now we go to China. What what vote is going to be a determining factor. So what I notice is that I'm I'm very familiar with Negeri because of the last 9 years I've been living Close by. 750 m from the Negeri border.

Yeah. I'm very familiar with a lot of places in Negeri. Negeri Sembilan is a state that is doing quite well. And I think they they kicked off after Malacca took off. You know, Malacca took off in the '90s or something, '80s after the Rahim Thamby Chik and Ali Rustam, Malacca really took off and became really developed. Malacca is a OECD, you know? It's it's supposed to be a fully developed state. So Negeri Sembilan did a catching up job with Malacca, especially under the Menteri Besar at that time, Mat Hassan.

Mhm. Uh they did a good job and Negeri has been progressing very well since then. I think it's going to be the next industrial industrial powerhouse in the country because proximity to Selangor. Selangor land is expensive, space is limited. A lot of industries are moving into Negeri. Yesterday we saw a huge development in a some semiconductor that Well, the name semiconductor was there. They're developing this huge tract of land, really big. And this I think they're setting up semi electronics manufacturing. So that's the situation in Negeri, yeah? Um uh but

sadly, as in the rest of Malaysia, you find that not everybody is equally involved in all these good things that are going on in Negeri. Some races are more, some races are less, that kind of thing, you know? But so the issue in in in for this election now, okay, so Negeri is more or less it's it's it's a nice place. You know, people are more or less happy, you know, things are calm. Everywhere we went, uh people uh were relatively relatively okay. You don't see any vagrants on the streets, very few. No one sleeping on the streets in Seremban. Okay. In KL we have So the issues that

that will concern the voters and how they they vote in my view will not be local issues. It'll be national issues. This is where I think PH and DAP and and and Anthony Loke they may have issues because Negeri is fairly sound and it's a nice place, you know. Things are functioning, people are going about their business. Things can be better but so the the focus I think or rather the the the the the yoke on the PH shoulder and neck is what they've done in at the national level. This this is going to be a recurring theme I think in this country. What happened? So this this was going to affect

like Anthony Loke in Chennah. The the that thing is especially from the Chinese voters. Yeah. I mean people have been saying it all depends on the turnout of the of the Chinese votes, right? But that DAP is going to be able to survive and how

how many of that and I mean I I guess being in the government as we all know, I mean they can pull all the stops. They have the I mean the machinery to do that. And the the word that we have is that if DAP can maintain around 85% you know, I mean or 60% turnout 85% Chinese support approximately 60% turnout or so, you know, they still can retain Chennah by probably a narrow margin. So I I want to I I I guess for me personally I would it would be a great a a great slap if if if the secretary general loses his seat. You know, really.

But you know, I mean They can they can cancel that August 16th meeting. Yeah, but on on the other hand I do I do see it that actually it be even if they retain it on the on in a in a low ma low margin punya victory, yeah. I mean that they probably saw a lot, all right? You know, you know.

Okay, I think we can we can look at some individual parties right here. Um You see uh in the 2023 elections, DAP did well. They contested 11 seats and they won 11. The flat tires were PKR and Amanah. And these are the two guys who are going to continue dragging down the PH in this Negeri elections, lah. Well, this is my uh

Your assessment. my crystal crystal ball, lah. You see in 2023, PKR they went for 16 seats. 16, they only won five. So, that's 1/3, 33% success rate, lah. So, bear in mind the 2023 elections I think was in August of 2023, which is what? 9 10 months after the 2022 general elections in November. So, meaning in Well, they didn't do great in the 2022 general elections. Remember, nobody won. It was a hung parliament. So, 9 10 months later was a Negeri elections and PKR went for 16 seats and they only won five. 33% success rate, lah. The worst performer was Amanah. They

went for nine seats and they won one, right? Okay, but nevertheless, PKR won five, DAP 11, Amanah one. What is that? 16, 17 seats. Negeri has got 36 seats. 36. 50% is 18. Simple majority, you need 19 seats. Uh So, PH won 17 seats. They teamed up with uh UMNO, and they were able to form the government. So, now UMNO, they they went for 25 seats in 2023. They won 14. It's a big chunk, you know, right? And then Bersatu at the time was new. They also went for 18 seats. They only won two. And PAS PAS went for 18 seats, and they won three. So, you see uh Now, UMNO has teamed up with Well, PAS

and PAS has got Wawasan with them. New first time. First first First outing for Hamzah Zainudin. And we have to talk about Hamzah in a while. Uh So, you see uh PAS BN had 14 seats last last round. PAS got three, right? 14 and three is 17. Last round, 2023. Uh Even if they maintain this, they're only one seat away from 50%, which is 18. So, the rest will be from Wawasan, you know, who are vying for four seats. So, even if Either way, assuming that they they do not drastically lose. I'm talking about BN now, Perikatan Nasional. I'm talking about PAS, and I'm talking about Wawasan. And BN UMNO

and MCA and MIC. Now, in 2023, MCA MIC the lower they didn't get anything but they're vying for for lesser seats now and I think it it like in in Johor MCA and MIC picked up seats. So we're talking about not in only five seats, 10 seats, you know, we're talking about one seat, two seats because Negeri only has 36 seats. So if if if the BN boys can maintain they had 14 14 and then the PAS had three 17 Wawasan Satu Dua you know, you can swing the balance. So I think that the next government is going to be a a hybrid Barisan and BN government in Negeri Sembilan because the numbers are very small.

Uh because the downside for for PAS and UMNO uh to me is less than for PH. And as I said that you don't need to win five seats, 10 seats. This is this is going to be one seat.

going to be the the most three seats swing. What do you call that in the photo finish, yeah? It's going to be a photo finish. That's what I see. Yeah. With with the it's more towards Chondong line Malay it's it's leaning towards uh uh

BN BN and the Perikatan boys. That's how I look at it. Yeah. I have a same gut feeling listening to our uh when you you calling out from uh when your visit last night our other team uh going down uh yesterday on the Chinese areas. Um that's the same feeling that we have and uh whether we see the turnout manifest itself if the turnout many uh the turnout include people who are not voting you know, which is the which is where the national issue is with respect to the non-Malays especially the Chinese votes. Yeah. I think your your your crystal balling of a BN victory could be could come

true, brother. There is also Bersatu. Yeah. Bersatu, okay, two uh two parties have got issues, Bersatu has split. Hamzah Zainudin broke away and set up Wawasan. Wawasan is contesting four seats. Uh

Yeah. Hamzah is playing his cards uh quite closely. He's not going for like I can do 18. He's He's only doing four four He's They're playing it smart, though. They're playing it They're playing smart. Even if they if they can pick up one or two, it'll be a good first-time outing. It'll be good first-time outing for them. Compared to Rafizi's Bersama, which didn't pick up anything in Johor. But I think uh Hamzah is only going for four seats, like like uh taking a careful step, you know, contesting four seats in Negeri. And uh they may pick up one or two. Maybe on a

good day they can pick up more. So So Hamzah is going to This is a This is a chance for him to make his name. And I think they're trying hard. Okay, the people who have well, who lost their membership or lost Hamzah and and and all his supporters is Bersatu. But Bersatu is vying for how many seats? Uh Uh 24. in Negeri. 24 seats, you know. 24 seats. So it's quite ambitious.

Very. Very ambitious. But you you'll never know. What if Bersatu picks up a few seats, you know? They might So So you see, where will they be after the the polls have closed? These are These are the uh These are the issues that you know, we have to wait and see. Uh So Bersatu and their offshoot or other the breakaway is Wawasan. And then don't forget, PKR has broken up. Rafizi, lah.

Yeah, yeah. Rafizi left PKR. So, a bunch of his supporters are not with PKR anymore. So, this is the other factor that also weighed down on PKR in this Negeri election, just like it did in the Johor elections. So, these splits cost these parties support. Both PKR and Bersatu.

I wonder whether I mean I I don't want to go too much into the weeds of of of the um of each constituency, but really I wonder how much of these splits in the um in the Malay votes uh

I think the Rafizi, yeah. Yes. it's confusing the the the Malay voters? I wouldn't say it's confusing because frankly, lah, none of them are offering anything different from each other.

I do agree. On that part, we both agree. Yeah, so there's nothing to confuse the voters. The only thing is now Is it more of the personality? Or the color on the ground level? Maybe the color of your flag. I really don't know because none of them are saying anything this which is is significantly different from the other person. They're not saying anything new. They're all the same. So, as far as voters are concerned, you attend one ceramah to another ceramah more or less you're going to go back and think like, okay, you know, they heard the same things, you see. So, as you

said, lah, personality, character, if they have track record, they are from that area, things like this will help to swing the votes or attract the votes. Newcomers who are non-incumbent, they may These are the These are the factors they may not assist them as much, lah. Because issue-wise there's nothing black and white. Remember 2018? 1MDB scandal, kleptocracy, we were all so clear, you know, right? That's not the situation now. Now, everybody is you can't basically you can't tell one party apart from the other in terms of policy and all

So, if you ask me, I think before we wrap up a bit on on on this short coverage, uh uh the uh I guess the determining factor would be um the personalities as far as from the uh Malay-centric uh parties, uh uh it will be personality driven. On the uh on

Uh I my view is uh national issues will play a big role. Because of the Chinese votes. Before I forget. No, even Malays, even Malays, yeah, I think so. People are focusing on all national issues because there's nothing else really going on. Uh but a lot of things to complain about at the at the national level at federal level, uh uh what's happening in Putrajaya, lah, you know. Like you see this uh report RCI report and all that, uh at the release was very opportune, uh but uh nevertheless it has an impact. Everybody's talking about it. It's in all the media yesterday, today. And

people are talking about it, you know, the RCI and Tabung uh. This is not a local issue, but people are talking about it. Yeah. Definitely. Plus or minus. I have a gut feeling that's not going to affect the Negeri Sembilan punya sentiment with respect to the Malay votes.

Okay. You know why? I think that I mean, if you look at Negeri Sembilan, it's it's not really quite an urban uh or a very uh urban um constituency. Okay, as a whole. And the RCI report, let's let's get it very clearly, yeah. Um even I had the trouble really digesting the 200-plus 240 pages. Okay? Um so, if I were to leave it to layman, I don't think that's going to affect, but the bottom line that's going to affect actually on a national level um is that for the Chinese voters, uh uh or the Indian voters, uh these are national issues of importance in terms of governance,

right? And I think the the local is going to be on the on the Malay centric constituency is very much going to be how the personalities play out on the ground. That's that's my thought, buddy. I know. I think thank you for the our team on the ground including yourself. Guys, let's see what happened uh to tomorrow.

Tomorrow. Tomorrow and we'll we'll probably do a uh an analysis after that because I think the Negeri Sembilan one is the interesting one to see. It's interesting because uh the the constituencies are mixed fairly mixed compared to Johor. Right. Uh the so and then it's closer to KL, West Coast and all that. Uh it may be a better uh what do you call this? barometer reading temperature reading of what could happen in the general election.

Relative to Johor, I think this is a better temperature for us to gauging on. You can gauge things going. And hence, with that, I think let's see you again soon on this particular topic after we see the result come out. You know, thank you so much.

Thank you.